The Straits Times Blogs - Most Commented

Attack on Temasek Review: Not SPH

2009-11-06T03:40:00Z

Geoffrey Pereira explains an accusation based on IP address is mistaken; there was no malicious activity on SPH's part.

A COUPLE of days ago, a blog that focuses on Singapore politics carried a posting which accused Singapore Press Holdings of trying to cripple its web server.

Temasek Review (TR) posted its article, "SPH IP address caught 'grabbing' Temasek Review server" on Nov 2.

It started by defining a Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack - essentially as when a server is bombarded with requests so as to overload and cripple it.

It then went on to say that its monitoring had shown that during a recent period, there was a flurry of network requests coming from an SPH IP address.

Put this together and it is no less than an accusation that SPH had launched an Internet attack on TR. Many of its own readers, too, saw it as such, though TR tried to deny it in the discussion that followed on the site.

The article ended by fishing out the Computer Misuse Act and warning SPH to not continue its "intrusions" to undermine its site. Or else, it said, it would escalate the matter.

You can read the article in full, here (and if SPH is not being accused of a DOS attack, why associate it with this URL title?):
http://www.temasekreview.com/2009/11/02/sph-and-recent-ddos-attack-on-temasek-review/

Well, the truth is no warning was needed; but perhaps a little more understanding of the Internet by TR.

For, as at least one TR reader pointed out in the discussion the followed on the site, IP addresses by themselves do not prove anything. In fact IP spoofing is a common tactic used in a DOS attack and with information available readily (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IP_address_spoofing) TR should have known that SPH is as easy prey as anyone.

In any case, given the serious allegation made, SPH made checks with its Network Intrusion Protection Services (NIPS) vendor, a reputable multi-national company. We wanted to find out if anyone within the organisation did, indeed, have a go at TR.

Our NIPS vendor found that there was no unusually heavy access to TR during the period of the alleged attack on its site. SPH logs also determined that no one from the company tried to access material from 2008, as claimed by TR.

TR changed the time of the alleged attack (we have print-outs too!! ) some time after the article was first published; but I won't jump up and down the way some bloggers do when an SPH website changes a headline. I'll just put it down to corrections made by TR to improve accuracy.

Nevertheless, data made available to me covered a 3-day period starting before and ending after the alleged attack. It showed that about 25 SPH employees – including yours truly, a regular reader – visited TR; but we did not create the kind of flurry of Net activity that would slow a server down, much less precipitate a DOS.

In fact, from midnight on Nov 1 to about 6 am, (covering a period of the alleged attack) no one from SPH accessed the TR site.

Our NIPS vendor's technical staff member, who checked 7 days worth of data and found no DOS activity originating from SPH concluded: "My opinion of the situation is Temasek Review released the article with very little research into what happened on its server."

It is an expert opinion; but if opinions don't count, here are the facts: Contrary to TRs allegations, neither did anyone in SPH try to "grab" TR material in a way that would load its server; nor did any SPH staffer launch any attack on the server.

SPH reiterates 'We didn't do it'

2009-11-13T01:47:00Z

Geoffrey Pereira says TR's reactions to blog may have generated traffic but were not coherent.

When Temasek Review (TR) published its article last week accusing SPH of trying to cripple its web server, I felt strongly that it should not be ignored as just another piece of the usual nonsense hurled at the company, often from the cover of anonymity.

I advocated that we respond to the serious allegations made in the article, 'SPH IP address caught “grabbing” content from Temasek Review server' .
(http://www.temasekreview.com/2009/11/02/sph-and-recent-ddos-attack-on-temasek-review/)

No one coerced me to write it. I hope that answers some comments made on and about my blog, published last week, on Nov 6:
http://blogs.straitstimes.com/2009/11/6/attack-on-temasek-review-site-not-sph

TR reacted profusely, to say the least. It has published no fewer than 7 articles on the topic, when I counted yesterday (Nov12) . All but one – a letter – were belligerent in tone and designed to ridicule me and my company.

Among the points these tried to make:
- TR never accused SPH of having a go at its server;
- I got the timing of the alleged attack wrong;
- my explanation, involving spoofing in Denial-of -Service (DOS) attacks, was wrong.

The articles also tried to shift focus away from a DOS attack to SPH’s alleged “grabbing” of TR content.

There were some humorous detours, such as in ‘25 SPH employees “caught” surfing Temasek Review in 3 days’, published on Nov 7.
(http://www.temasekreview.com/2009/11/07/25-sph-employees-caught-surfing-temasek-review-in-3-days/ )

This spoke about how journalists – from both SPH and Today – were visiting TR to “fish for news to write with most of them lacking the basic courtesy to even acknowledge their source of information”.

But the funniest was this: “Despite our sometimes fierce rhetoric against SPH journalists, we have really nothing against them personally. In fact, we are very sympathetic of the situation they are in: they are paid pittance and made to work long hours.”

It went on to add: “When our media company is finally incorporated next year, we will give our full-time journalists a better deal. SPH journalists are more than welcomed to join us.”

Wow.

Also interesting was the letter sent to SPH’s CEO, and published in TR on Nov 8.
( http://www.temasekreview.com/2009/11/08/temasek-review-writes-to-sph-ceo-alan-chan-to-seek-further-clarifications/ )

In it was a surprise statement, referring to TR's original article:

“Our correspondent who drafted the article was not familiar with IT matters. We apologize if our article has caused some misunderstanding and we have already clarified the matter in subsequent articles.

"We have never intended to implicate SPH with the DDOS attack on our server which had occurred a day earlier and we are sorry for any distress caused.”

Wow (again). They pelt me with rotten tomatoes and roast me, deny that they made accusations against SPH. At the same time, they say sorry to my CEO for hurling accusations.

Well, SPH does not reply to letters from unidentified parties (even if they have e-mail addresses), so TR – whose editor has no name, no face – should not hope for one from my CEO.

On Nov 10 yet another article from TR:
( http://www.temasekreview.com/2009/11/10/sph-journalist-geoffrey-pereira-got-boomzed-on-his-blog/comment-page-1/ )

This was a compilation of anonymous comments, mostly poking fun at my original blog, and which TR filed under “Top News”. It was back to pelting and roasting.

The summary of all this is, in a space of just under a week, TR has gone on overdrive to increase traffic to its site.

It has said so many things – including denying, then accepting, that it had accused SPH of trying to cripple its server – almost in the same breath. Wayang would be an apt term to describe it.

I will be unequivocal and reiterate what I said in my earlier blog: SPH made checks spanning a period that extended to before and after the alleged attack .

Our checks found that neither SPH as a company, nor any employee as an individual, launched a DOS attack on TR's web server. There was also no attempt to "grab" TR material in a way that could overload its server.

A simple solution

2009-10-27T06:45:00Z

Loh Keng Fatt has some ideas to help reduce road rage in Singapore.

YOU play "good driver" and observe all the rules. On the expressway, you filter left early to follow the stream of cars exiting on the slip road. Or you do the same on the extreme right of a road to access a ramp, or slip road, to a highway.

During peak periods however, this eats up time, the line of cars in front of you can be quite long, and that's when the nasty Singaporean driver shows up.

There you are, nursing your car slowly forward, when a small gap opens in front of you and suddenly a car swerves forcefully into your path.

He is, of course, the infamous queue-jumper — and not necessarily piloting some fancy set of wheels.

You mutter curses, and stare daggers at the offender, willing him or her to check the rear-view mirror to meet your blazing eyes.

Most times, the other driver does not.

I think many motorists are confronted by such brazen, irresponsible actions every day.

But you don't have to put up with such nonsense; you don't have to feel like you need to bash them up (of course, you shouldn't), or even sound your horn in angry frustration.

I've got a simple solution:

Could some sort of barrier in the form of poles be placed along the dotted lines separating two roads; starting at some distance from the exit or entrance point?

Some may say that this would be unsightly. Perhaps. Others may call it dangerous.

But it would only be dangerous if you were speeding and trying to cut in at the last possible moment.

Still, you would have to agree that something has to be done to curb Singapore’s reckless drivers.

It is also dangerous to other motorists who must be on "super alert" to avoid hitting the intruders.

I have learnt to keep a very sharp vigil for anyone who is inclined to cut in.

I actually keep to the extreme edge of the road to give them less space to muscle in. If I am filtering left, I keep my car hugging the extreme right side of my lane, and vice versa.

Drivers should never allow a yawning gap to open in front of them, to let some time-pinching driver sneak in.

Perhaps, if everyone did that, we wouldn't need to install barriers to ward off the queue-cheaters?

Driving sense of humour

2009-10-28T12:22:00Z

Niki Bruce reviews comedic columns from Clarkson and has a good laugh.

I LIKE cars. I like to drive, I like the look of them, I like the convenience; but I have no real idea of the difference between a V8 and a V12, or why I should prefer one over the other.

So, I'm not obsessed by cars, I don't LOVE them but strangely enough, one of my absolutely favourite TV shows has got to be BBC Two's Top Gear.

This is a show by boys, for boys and run somewhat like an adolescent male's perfect fantasy – before he's quite reached puberty though, as there's no skimpily-dressed pneumatic blondes on this show.

What makes Top Gear one of the most watched info-tainment shows around is the group of slightly dorky, middle-aged, funny blokes who host it – James May, Richard Hammond and Jeremy Clarkson.

Richard Hammond is probably most famous for being short, having blindingly white teeth and surviving an horrific crash while he was driving a jet-powered car for a segment in the show in 2006. The car was reportedly travelling at 300 miles per hour when the crash occurred.

James May, on the other hand, is more a traditionalist. He's been nicknamed 'Captain Slow' on the show, despite being a qualified pilot and having taken a Bugatti Veyron to its top speed of 253.45 mph; but he's basically the straight man for the other two presenters.

Jeremy Clarkson, however, is nominally the 'head boy' of Top Gear, known for his scathing hatred of the British Labour government, the environmental movement, speed limits and just about anything that stops him from driving very expensive cars, very fast, where ever he wants to.

Which is why his latest book, Driven to Distraction is so very, very funny. Clarkson has a very dry sense of humour with that particularly British ability to be self-depreciating and pompous at the same time.

This book, if you enjoy clever word usage and rubbishing stupid people and/or government policies, has "laugh out loud" moments on almost every page.

Driven to Distraction is a collection of Clarkson's columns for the Sunday Times newspaper where he's been writing since the 1990s, and as such follows a predictable format.

There's a semi-topical intro and lead-in to a description of a car, before a pronouncement of judgement. Generally the columns blend quite well, but some are obvious attempts to link one of his pet issues to a particular car review; still, they are all immensely entertaining.

Clarkson has a particular turn of phrase that offers a mix of public schoolboy enthusiasm with deliberate word-play. His dedication is a prime example: "To everyone who made my Range Rover. Well done, chaps. It's brilliant."

While I enjoy the humour, Clarkson's contempt for political correctness and his tendency to 'stir the pot', I'm not that interested in his detailed descriptions of particular car engines, gear boxes or top speeds.

Still, those sections are easily skipped over if you're not interested and the humour returns. The fact that the book is a collection of columns means that you can read it in convenient snatches of time – it's great for the bus or taxi.

Driven to Distraction will, in fact, make the perfect Christmas present for any male person in your life. I'll probably have to buy a number of them; this year it will be my gift-de-jour for male family members and friends.

Driven to Distraction by Jeremy Clarkson is published by Penguin imprint Michael Joseph and is available from good books stores and online.

Does polygamy work?

2009-11-14T22:00:00Z

Hazlin Hassan meets members of a 'polygamy club' in Malaysia.

A SO-CALLED polygamy club launched in August has been stirring some excitement recently.

Last month I made my way to Rawang, a town some 50 kilometres from KL city, to meet up with the club founder and some of her followers and family members. It was one of the most unusual interviews I have ever done.

When I arrived, I was taken aback to be greeted by dozens of people. It turns out Madam Hatijah Aam, 55, had gathered most of her husband's 38 children to join us!

"To prove to you that we exist," she laughed.

She is married to Ashaari Muhammad, who has had five wives. One wife has died, and one has been divorced.

His huge clan comprises 38 children, 200 grandchildren and 12 great-grandchildren. All of his children who are married, are in polygamous marriages. The club claims a membership of 300.

The close-knit Ashaari family are based in Rawang, where they run a huge empire of grocery stores, restaurants, publishing companies, clinics and other businesses. Mdm Hatijah says they also have businesses elsewhere in the world such as Australia, Syria and Germany, generating millions of ringgit, which funds their activities.

This is not the first time her family has made headlines. Mr Ashaari was previously known for having led a deviant religious sect that was banned in 1994, due to teachings deemed contrary to the Quran. It was believed to have thousands of followers, including civil servants. The government has said it suspects the polygamy club could be a front for the revival of the religious sect, which Hatijah has denied.

Before the cult was banned, followers wore long flowing robes and turbans for the men, and black robes and face-veils for the women.

But when I met them, Hatijah, Noraziah and their children, wore colourful though modest clothes and headscarves. Their faces were not covered. The children laughed and joked with each other during the interview, like any other family.

ST PHOTO BY: HAZLIN HASSAN

Hatijah sounded persuasive enough, saying polygamy could help solve social ills such as prostitution and adultery. But when I pressed her on how a polygamist might be fair and just to all his wives, and how he is able to provide for all of them equally, she was unable to give solid answers. I said that while Ashaari might be able to provide all of them with comfortable lives due to his profitable businesses, other ordinary men earning meagre salaries, might not. Her answer was just that "God will provide." But the club's brochures do highlight a verse from the Quran that says that if a man fears he is unable to be fair and just to his wives, then he must only marry one.

The clan then proceeded to surprise me at the end of the interview by singing two songs extolling the virtues of polygamy, written by Ashaari himself. After that, some of them departed for Indonesia, where they are setting up a chapter. Although I left not altogether convinced that polygamy was for every man (or woman), they did seem earnest enough. And they certainly welcomed me with much warmth and generosity.

Read Hazlin Hassan's report on More wives = less adultery and prostitution? in Saturday's edition of The Straits Times.

Happy (Singapore) Halloween

2009-11-03T11:07:00Z

Nicholas Yong, born on Halloween, gets an extra-special birthday party.

THIS seems terribly tragic but for someone born on Halloween, I actually attended a Halloween gathering for the first time this year.

To be fair, the festival was never a big thing when I was growing up in the 1980s. As far as I can tell, it's only really grown in popularity in recent years.

Luckily my first time turned out to be a highly memorable one, full of vivid sights that will live long in the memory.

I was at the centre of the action at the bridge leading from Riverside Point to the clubs and bars of Clarke Quay, amid hundreds of revellers dressed as everything from devils and ninjas to geisha girls and Scooby Doo.

Singaporeans come out to play for Halloween.
PHOTO: Nicholas Yong

An enterprising stallholder was selling hairbands with glowing horns to those who did not come in costume, but many did not need it.

In a carnival atmosphere reminiscent of Mardi Gras, the night was full of little spontaneous outbursts that livened up the whole atmosphere.

Like the surreal sight of Watchmen's Rorschach calling out to X-Men's Wolverine: "Logan! Come on over for a picture, it’s a superheroes gathering!"

'Wolverine' gets up close with a she-devil. PHOTO: Nicholas Yong

Watchmen's Rorschach isn't scared of H1N1.
PHOTO: Nicholas Yong

Or the Roman who got his toga pulled up by his friend, only to reveal that he was wearing nothing underneath, to moans and cheers from onlookers.

Just below the bridge, partygoers admired one another's costumes and sportingly posed for photos with one another that were guaranteed to find their way onto Facebook the next day. A man dressed as a soft drink even caused a small commotion when numerous individuals ran after him for a picture.

Many came dressed to party, and had clearly put in effort into their costumes.

"Eh, I even did research," said one dressed as a parking attendant, who proudly showed off his big hat and small slingbag with an equally small umbrella hanging from it. He looked so convincing that I almost thought he was going to issue me a summons, even though I hadn't driven there.

Perhaps the anonymity provided by the costumes – a Scream mask here, a ninja hood there – and the haze of alcohol were what ensured a no-holds-barred party.

Nevertheless, even those without masks contributed to the carnival.

A Michael Jackson circa 1985, treated the crowd to an impressive dance display, before slinking away into the night like his very own one-man flash mob.

Standing in a corner, three Brits dressed as old women with mightily impressive fake breasts cackled away in character.

Cackling 'ladies' at Clarke Quay's Halloween celebrations.
PHOTO: Nicholas Yong

Then came my favourite moment of the night: four revellers in iconic costume who sparked a spontaneous cry of "Ghostbusters!", to the tune of the famous song.

Who you gonna call? PHOTO: Nicholas Yong

And of course, the night would not have been complete without the debilitating effects of booze.

My friend, who was in surgical scrubs, arrived at Clarke Quay so sloshed that he actually looked like he was in need of medical attention himself. "I cannot take it, I have to go home already," he moaned after about an hour.

I might have sympathised, but I was too distracted by some Japanese schoolgirls.

Hope all of you had a rocking Halloween.

Food for thought

2009-11-11T09:56:00Z

Loh Keng Fatt comes up with an idea to end the lunch-time seating crush.

COMPANIES in Singapore should really stagger their lunch hours. The way it is now, you have to jostle the masses during peak-time lunch hours at HDB coffeeshops.

Chances are, all the seats will be taken, people will be milling around waiting for a space to open up, and you will feel frustrated, especially if you have driven to the place for a bite.

But if the coffeeshop is next to an HDB block with a void deck, I wonder why that space can’t be utilised to contain the overflowing crowd.

In Chai Chee, I have actually seen enterprising hawkers in a busy kopitiam put up tables and chairs in the void deck of an HDB block facing the eatery.

Five or six tables were provided and they made for a happy gathering point for the lunchtime crowd. The tables were quickly cleared after the human traffic thinned.

But, in recent months, I have not seen the tables there. Maybe someone complained to the town council that the void deck was being used for unauthorised purposes?

Perhaps the hawkers were warned not to repeat their space-invader action?

I know residents in the block probably did not like the din created by the chattering lunch-time crowd.

They may also have been concerned about the issue of hygiene, from floors splattered with food stains and sauce to how quickly the leftover food and plates and utensils were cleared.

These are valid concerns and no one wants his immediate environment to be tarnished.

But in space-jammed Singapore, there is also the need to maximise the usage of space and allow community needs to prevail over personal ones, if they make sense.

People needing to eat lunch surely qualifies as a necessity.

Eating in a coffeeshop is a popular option. So, what if hawkers could be allowed to "borrow" the void-deck for a fixed duration, say from noon to 2pm?

What if they hire cleaners or staff to ensure that the space used is kept spotless after each usage and that rubbish is removed as quickly as possible?

What if only a portion of the void deck was used, and that this space was far away from the lobby and lift areas?

What if the town council actually levied a charge on the hawkers and that money in return went towards reducing the monthly service and conservancy charges of residents?

These issues could well be food for thought the next time you are desperately hunting for a lunch-time seat lunch in a coffeeshop.

What do you think of this idea? Leave your comments below.

An old wound ripped open

2009-11-08T05:38:00Z

Tracy Quek mulls the first amendment in the light of the Fort Hood shootings.

WASHINGTON DC

IN THE few hours it took the tenacious US media to dig up the identity of the gunman who went on a shooting spree at the US army base at Fort Hood, Texas on Thursday, I found myself running through different kinds of scenarios in my head.

Could it have been an outside attack, similar to the recent one staged against the Pakistani army camp by militants? Maybe a disgruntled former employee or soldier. Perhaps, a protester upset about US war mongering, or even a training exercise gone awry.

Rightly or wrongly, I stopped wondering when I heard the alleged perpetrator's name read out on television: Nidal Malik Hasan.

I found myself making certain assumptions based on what I have read in the media about the devastating activities of the few radical individuals that shared his religion.

My next thought was worry about a possible backlash on moderate Muslims in the US and around the world.

I also felt a wave of disappointment that another isolated act of violence had once again unraveled efforts by Muslims and non-Muslims to dispel misunderstandings about the teachings of Islam and reduce inter-ethnic distrust and suspicion.

Moving to curtail an explosive situation, President Barrack Obama and investigators called immediately for caution, warning the public not to speculate on Hasan's motive.

The Army said it was looking into whether Hasan, an army psychiatrist, had snapped under the pressure of his job counselling thousands of war-weary troops, or because of mistreatment, or was motivated by deeper convictions.

It was against this backdrop that I was disturbed to see a top cable news network, a day after the shooting, air a television story about a radical Muslim group, made up of American citizens, preaching hate on the streets of New York.

The reporter behind the story had been working on the report for some time but editors obviously saw the connection to the shooting at Fort Hood and chose to run it, linking it to the murderous rampage.

The story opened with a screen capture of the group’s homepage where members described Hasan as "an officer and a gentleman" and proclaimed "we love you".

It went on to show one-on-one interviews with two members of the group, both American citizens.

One said the Quran, Islam's holy book, commanded him to "terrorise" non believers, to strike fear in them so that they would not commit crime.

The other proclaimed that he "loved Osama bin Laden" more than he loves himself. He called President Obama a "scumbag'' and added he would not shed a tear if Mr Obama was killed.

The group had been actively recruiting outside New York city's biggest mosque, where moderate Muslims go to worship, shouting their incendiary messages and passing out pamphlets, according to the TV footage.

In other countries, such as Britain, they would be breaking the law for inciting racial hatred. But in the US, they are shielded by the first amendment to the US constitution which protects the freedom of speech, press, religion, assembly and petition.

While I admire the principles behind the first amendment and what they stand for, I questioned the appropriateness of showing that story, especially so soon after the shooting.

Would it not have further anguished the families of the fallen soldiers to see, albeit a small group of, fellow Americans celebrating the man who just murdered their loved ones?

Also, with public emotions running high, would it not have been better to wait to show that story, instead of risking the possibility that it could incite and inflame viewers?

Already, the Internet here is buzzing with renewed Islamaphobia. Right-wing websites are calling the shooting a "Jihad at Fort Hood?" and a "Terrorist Incident in Texas".

In Singapore, we have strong laws and policies to guard against anything that would rock the inter-racial and ethnic harmony the country has worked so hard to achieve.

I am more convinced than ever that they are there for a good reason and should be upheld and protected whatever the criticisms.

Meanwhile, in America, an old wound has been ripped opened once again, and it remains to be seen how well or quickly it will heal this time.

Read more about the Fort Hood incident:
Counsellor 'needed help'
Motive of shooter probed
Obama to attend memorial

Editor's note: The spelling of amendment has been fixed.

The angst afflicting investors

2009-10-26T03:30:00Z

Goh Eng Yeow on the lacklustre market sentiment.

IT'S been a while since I have written a blog on the stock market.

At first glance, nothing much seems to have changed. Except for stock market indexes pressing past key resistance levels in the past two weeks, lots of investors are contented to sit back and let the rally pass them by.

As I write, the benchmark Straits Times Index is languishing around Friday's close of 2,715, unable to shake off the lethargy which has afflicted stock markets around the world since August.

The bulls have been arguing for a while now that stock prices should continue to move upwards. Investors are earning nothing, keeping their money in the bank, with interest rates at close to zero levels.

And with the greenback showing no signs of revival against regional currencies, it is attractive for investment banks and hedge funds to borrow more heavily in US dollar to make even bigger bets in the region’s stock markets.

But a report by Citigroup this morning shows that foreign fund managers' attention seems to be fixated elsewhere.

"About US$781 million (S$1.09 billion) of new money flowed to offshore Asian funds last week. But this was less than one-third of the global emerging market funds, 37 per cent below global funds and even 10 per cent smaller than the amount taken in by Latin American funds whose assets under management are just one-fourth of Asian funds," it observes.

So what is holding back foreign funds from making bigger bets here?

Citigroup believes that the problem stems from the large number of cash-calls made by companies as they strengthen, or repair, their balance sheets after the recent massive financial fire-storm.

"Over the past three months, total cash-calls (both IPOs and secondaries) reached US$54 billion in Asia ex-Japan, which was 3.6 times the funds raised in Latin America, emerging Europe, Middle East and South Africa added together."

By coincidence, both ST and BT highlight today the large number of share placements made by Singapore firms this year.

I suppose that it is prudent house-keeping for management to make hay while the sun shines by raising money in whatever way they can – and share placements seem to be the easiest route currently – as there is no guarantee that the going may get tougher going forward.

But the discount is so big in some cases – loss-making bio-technology play Transcu gave new investors a eye-popping 38 per cent discount to last traded price – that it arouses unhappiness among existing shareholders.

With such share placements, these shareholders not only fail to get a bite of the cherry, but find that their existing shareholdings are diluted in percentage terms as well.

With the end of the year approaching in just over two months, I expect the "watchful peace" in the stock market to continue for a while yet.

At the start of the year, I wrote that the stock market mood was so bleak that dealers were wishing that the clock could, at that instant, strike at midnight on Dec 31, 2009 just to get the year over with. Today, many must be wishing that the current year never comes to a clsoe, as this could mean the end of the stock market party.

Buffett’s giant bet

2009-11-04T04:48:00Z

Goh Eng Yeow comments on the US$26 billion bet made by Warren Buffett as the stock market rally is losing steam.

ONE step forward and two steps back – this seems to be the direction that stock markets across the world are taking after hitting their highs for the year last month.

On Tuesday, market jitters were becoming audible, with the Wall Street’s Vix index – which measures the volatility of the S&P 500 Index – hitting its highest level since March.

While US stock index futures predicted another jaw-dropping fall on Wall Street, legendary investor Warren Buffett struck the biggest deal of his life – a US$26 billion (S$36.4 billion) purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe – in what he labelled as his "all-in wager" on America's economic future.

The question again being asked, like last October when he made huge bets on Goldman Sachs and General Electric, is whether Mr Buffett is losing his Midas touch.

He was even willing to issue new shares of his highly-prized investment firm Berkshire Hathaway as part of the purchase package to complete the deal.

But investors had their eyes firmly fixed on the communiqué to be issued by the US central bank at the end of a two-day interest rates fixing meeting tonight.

Despite splurging so much money on a single deal, Mr Buffett failed to move Wall Street at all. The Dow Jones Industrial Averages ended slightly down, spooked by renewed concerns over the business outlook of the US financial giants whose problems had sent the global financial system reeling last year.

What to make of all the mixed signals coming from Mr Buffett and the rest of the US markets so far?

As I write, the benchmark Straits Times Index is up a meagre 17 points to 2639.03. But it is still way below the high-water mark of 2,716 reached last month. Like investors elsewhere, the players here are keeping their powder dry, as they wait for the dust to settle on the latest bout of market uncertainties.

But as my small change column "On the trail of smart money" suggested, a retail investor should track the moves of shrewd market operators like Mr Buffett to time their own purchases for the long-term.

Mr Buffett has, as he had succinctly put it, put both his words and money where his mouth is.

I guess that even for an investor of Mr Buffett’s age – he is after all pressing on to 80 years old – taking a long-term view of companies and economic trends often wins out when they are temporarily depressed by short-term uncertainties - something which I hope to take up in a future small change column.

He may not be making money on his latest "elephant" purchase for years. But then Rome is not built in one day. He may yet be proven right on his latest bet on America’s future.

On another note, I have received several queries from readers to my the latest "small-change" column on how they can track insiders' trades.

The ST publishes a list of insiders’ trades every Friday which highlight some of the big trades of the week.

To get a better handle of the trades themselves, it is best for a reader to identify which corporate titans they wish to follow and the stocks they regularly trade. As these biggies are often the biggest shareholders of the companies, their trades will be reported on the Singapore Exchange website.

Just tracking a couple of trades will not give the reader a hang of the views which these insiders hold on their stocks. You will have to track them over time – months or even years to do so.

One last note: I have made the effort to write the market blog regularly with a view to give online readers a handle on market directions and highlight possible trading trends. Over time, I hope to attract readers to give their views and turn the blog into a vibrant discussion on the market.

The blog has recently attracted comments on topics opposition politics which is inappropriate to the topics being discussed here.

I am glad that some readers have endeavoured to point this out to those polluting this blog with their irrelevant comments.

Those people who are unhappy about non-stock market issues should really air their grievances elsewhere and leave this space for those who are keen to learn more about the equities market and grow their nest-eggs.

Tech titan of the decade

2009-11-08T22:00:00Z

Grace Chng explains her love for Apple and the man behind the brand.

ON NOV 5, Fortune.com honoured Apple’s imperious and often tyrannical head, Steve Jobs, 54, by naming him the CEO of the decade.

They did this because in the past 10 years, he has radically and lucratively reordered three markets -- music, movies, and mobile telephones -- and his impact on his original industry, computing, has grown.

Apple’s valuation has increased from US$5 billion in 2000 to US$170 billion, only slightly more than Google.

This for a man who felt his world had collapsed when he was ousted in 1985 from the company he co-founded in 1976. He contemplated leaving Silicon Valley because he thought himself a failure.

But he decided that he still loved making computers and founded Pixar, an animation company and Next, which made technologically advanced but expensive computers. Apple bought the company in 1997 for Next technology and Jobs returned to Apple. (Pixar was acquired by Disney in 2006 for US$7.5 billion, turning Jobs into the largest Disney shareholder with about 7% of stock. )

What followed next - a string of successes with the Macintosh computers, iTunes, iPod and the iPhone – is public knowledge.

As a gadget freak, I like simple products and services that does what it serves. So I’ve fallen for the Kindle which is a great ebook reader and nothing else. Similarly, I like Google because its simplicity is so appealing. They are no more then 28 words on Google’s home page and it does not distract you from doing what you want to do on it: Search for something.

I don’t have to read any manual to learn how to use these offerings. So it is with Apple’s products. They are intuitive and easy to use. The fact that they are sexy too is a bonus point.

It was the in the early 80s when I bought my first Mac and it was then that I started to closely follow Apple’s and Jobs’ developments and fortunes. I’ve been privileged to have the front row seat in the last decade to hear first hand all the new gadgets Jobs announced.

The Fortune article of Nov 5 described Jobs as tyrannical perfectionist and an excellent businessman. I can see it in the products that have emerged as well as the high company valuation.

But it is the Macworld keynote presentations that he has become the stuff of legends. To hear him speak, Macworld attendees camp overnight at the Moscone convention centre where the event is always held. For the media, the day begins at 6am for breakfast and then a brisk 20-minute walk in the crisp morning air from the hotel to Moscone.

Then it is a two-hour queue. Every 15-20 minutes, the queue moves a few steps until the door to the hall opens at 8.45am for everyone to be seated. He comes on at 9am and speaks for about 90 minutes.

I’ve attended about 10 Macworlds, mostly in San Francisco, and a couple in New York and the routine only changed in the last two years when Apple let media into the waiting area from 8am. (Apple announced this year, it would not be doing any more of the keynotes at Macworld San Francisco.)

It is at these events that Jobs would unveil Apple’s new offerings like the iPod, iTunes, the thin Macbook Air, the iPhone and the App Store. He is great at presentations. He knows how to position the problem and then unveil the solution. He certainly knows how to work up the crowd.

Jobs missed the Macworld keynote this year as he took leave to focus on his health. He was diagnosed with a rare form of pancreatic cancer in 2004. He had operation from which he recovered. But in 2008, he had lost considerable weight. His bones were sticking out of his trademark turtleneck shirt.

He took six-month medical leave to focus on getting better. He is now back at work after a liver transplant.

I must admit that when I saw his emaciated look last June, I had a terrible fright. It looked certain that I would have to prepare an obituary for him.

In that moment, I realised that he is my hero.

For daring to follow his heart to create products his competitors slammed; for creating new life out of matured industries like MP3 and cellphones; for his creativity and ability to micro-manage and have a vision.

'Obama gets Asia story'

2009-11-09T09:35:00Z

Nirmal Ghosh listens to Mahbubani speak on the rise of Asia.

BANGKOK

FORMER Singapore Ambassador to the United Nations Kishore Mahbubani – whose writings on Asia have placed him on the world’s geopolitical lecture circuit — recently spoke at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT).

The timing was good; the APEC summit in Singapore is around the corner, and US President Barack Obama will be attending — and also meeting with ASEAN leaders in Singapore.

The APEC forum started its meetings over the weekend, with the summit to be held this week.

Always engaging and provocative, Mr Mahbubani began writing about the rise of Asia well before it was fashionable.

Five years ago he quit Singapore's foreign service, and is now Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, which draws students from across over 50 countries.

His latest book is titled The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East. The title of Mr Mahbubani’s talk was 'Why the West fails to understand the rise of the East'.

What the world is witnessing, is not so much the rise of Asia but the return of Asia, he said. It is an important distinction.

'From the year one to the year 1820 the two largest economies in the world were consistently China and India, so if by 2050 or probably earlier as Goldman Sachs predicts the four largest economies in the world will be China, India, the USA and Japan, that is not a deviation from the norm," he said.

"That is a return to a 2000 year norm that vastly overrides the last 200 year norm."

Mr Mahbubani also criticized the western media, which he said even in its most upbeat assessments of Asia, always managed to slip in a caveat or two. This reflected a wider intellectual resistance to the power shift, he said.

"The return of Asia is by far the biggest story in the world. But I've been amazed at the amount of resistance to accepting this reality.

"And I've come to the conclusion that there's a very deep psychological resistance in many leading western minds to even conceiving of the possibility of a world that is so different to the 19th and 20th centuries."

He qualified that remark though, by observing that the response varied, from the US to Europe and also within Europe.

He was optimistic about the difference the election of President Barack Obama has made to the US's global image – and what it will do for ties with Asia.

"Anything that shakes the American intellectual belief that the world will continue to revolve around America as the centre of the universe is an idea that is very difficult for Americans to accept," he said.

But he stressed in the context of the APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit in Singapore: "I think Obama understands the importance of the Pacific."

"I suspect given his background... he has a different sense of where the centre of geography of the world is.

"I think Obama gets the Asia story right, and I am confident that his participation in these meetings plus his visits to several Asian countries will result in improvement in US relations with Asia."

On the US's engagement with Asean he said part of the reason for Washington's closer involvement could be to match China’s influence.

"If China is improving its ties in leaps and bounds with the Asean countries, it is not in America’s interest to be left behind," he said.

Read more about the current Apec meeting in Singapore:
Apec is as good as FTA
Hu to visit Singapore

US dollar carry trade

2009-11-16T08:15:00Z

Goh Eng Yeow on the boost the weakening greenback gives regional equities.

ASIAN markets are rallying as the greenback falls to fresh lows against regional currencies, giving the giant US dollar carry trade a fresh lease of life.

As I write, the US dollar has fallen to a record low against the Singdollar.

It is difficult to fathom why the greenback is so weak today, but it is the biggest reason for propelling regional stock indexes on a fresh upward trajectory.

This has sent the Hang Seng hurtling towards the 23,000 resistance level, while STI is up nearly 50 points at 2,777.

Some will say that the renewed weakness over the greenback is a reflection of falling US economic might.

One newspaper has described US President Barack Obama's nine-day trip to Asia as a visit to his creditors.

"Mr Obama can only grin and ask his hosts to bear with the weakening greenback. He does not have the means to rescue the US dollar on his own," it noted.

And for traders the world over, the most telling sign of US humility was the picture of the deep bow which Mr Obama made before the Japanese emperor in Tokyo.

It is also a sign of China's growing confidence that its president, Mr Hu Jintao, left Singapore after Mr Obama took off to Shanghai.

A far less assured leader would have cut short his Apec summit visit to Singapore and return back to Beijing early to make sure that nothing goes wrong with Mr Obama's first state-visit to his country.

This is why faith is being renewed among traders that they can safely "short" dollars and "long" emerging market equities, without having to fear that a sudden rebound of greenback will wipe them out.

In the short-term, a weakening green-back will give strength of the US dollar carry trade – and like the precedessor yen carry trade a decade ago – trigger a sharp rise in the value of all types of assets – stocks and shares, precious metals like gold, as well as crude oil.

But in the long-term, the trend of the weakening dollar is unhealthy, as it may prompt other major trading nations to try to devalue their currencies as well to try to stay competitive.

It reminds many of the Asian financial crisis a decade ago, when several nations indulged in what is known as "competitive devaluation" to protect their exports markets to keep up with the falling value of their neighbours’ currencies.

The end-result was near bankruptcy for them.

Lines of succession

2009-11-19T06:25:00Z

Sherwin Loh asks why gizmo upgrades happen at such a breathless pace.

AS I sat at my desk this week opening up my review unit of the N97 Mini smartphone from Nokia, I could not help but feel sorry for the poor souls who, just a few months ago, had picked up the original N97.

The N97 is Nokia's flagship device, mixing a small computer with 32GB, 5MP camera with a 3.5 inch screen. It was launched in June for $1,028.

The Mini, as the name suggests, is a smaller device with a 3.2inch screen and 8GB capacity. The price, at $1,020, had not shrunk much when the gizmo launched this month.

Two phones, almost similar in specs, launched less than six months apart at about the same price. If you factor in telco subsidy, you can get either phone for about $500 on similar subscription plans right now.

Some might say that the extra memory in the original device makes it a better buy, but I'm looking at the N97 Mini as the more updated device, with extra time spent on improving it, and thus, the better product. Form wise, the metallic back cover of the new kid beats the plastic one of the big daddy any day.

But this blog is not just about phones, but more about companies releasing newer versions of their products at a faster rate, with cellphone companies the latest player in the catch-up game.

In the home movie industry, it is called "double dipping", where studios release a movie on DVD first, and a Special Edition with extra features and bonus disc a year later.

In the case of electronics, not too many consumers can afford to buy a second device for the additional features, but imagine spending a tidy sum on a new plasma TV, only to find out that five months later that the model you bought now has a thinner variant, with different colours and more bells and whistles too — and at about the same price.

I would be upset.

As a consumer, when I buy an expensive product, I hate knowing that there is a newer version just around the corner.

Some might argue that innovations give rise to these upgrades. So consumers get tinier gizmos yet with niftier tools.

I do not deny that soup-ups are great. There is the original iPhone, the much improved iPhone 3G and the current 3GS, all launched with significant upgrades about a year apart.

Take the new PlayStation 3 Slim. At 33 per cent smaller and 36 per cent lighter than its predecessor, it also comes with a 120GB hard drive against the 60GB of the original. And it’s priced the same as the original but with more to offer.

Unlike super fast handset roll-outs, the PS3 Slim – also trotted out in August this year – comes three years after the original made its debut in November 2006.

Of course, fans might take issue with the fact that after the roll-out of the $512 120GB version here last month, Sony announced this week the price of the 250GB version at $552. Again, I pity those who bought the 120GB version.

There is nothing wrong with gizmo makers trotting out newer models, but in a breathless span of a few months, or even week?

Surely, the respectable time distance should be a year, like cars, for which a new model is launched each year.

Such pacing – apart from discouraging over consumerism and clogging the earth with electronic junk – gives consumers the latitude of buying without feeling so cheated.

The least they can do is come out with the devices with new model numbers or names.

Alas, Nokia already has the N98 and N99 models lined up so it is stuck with calling the new N97 the Mini, but that is what happens when you launch and design things so close after the other.

The buy high, sell low syndrome

2009-11-11T03:53:00Z

Goh Eng Yeow on the increasing market weariness as indexes flirt with 2009 highs.

WATCHING the stock market the past few days and I am reminded of a man heaving a heavy sack, as he climbs up a hill. Each foot-fall becomes heavier as he climbs higher, as he turns wearier with every step.

Global stock markets have been flirting with 2009 highs, ever-since Wall Street's Dow Jones Industrial Average successfully breached the 10,000 level last Thursday.

But traders don't seem to be much cheered by the prospects of higher stock prices at all.

Instead, trading volumes around the world have been drying up, as buyers melt away as share prices climb higher.

What is supporting the global stock market rally is the increasingly shaky US dollar carry trade - with big-time punters borrowing heavily in US dollars to buy all sorts of assets from crude oil to emerging markets equities.

What they are betting is a further drop in the US dollar and a rise in the value of the assets they are buying. This will give them both forex gains and capital gains.

But as one economist points out, there is no chance of the US dollar falling to zero, even though the economic prospects of the US look awful. This explains why every drop in the greenback is viewed by traders with concern, as the prospect of a sudden rebound becomes more likely, wiping out those who are "shorting" the US dollar in a big way.

It seems strange to be placing a bet in the stock market when so much of the outcome hinges on the health of the ailing US dollar and almost nothing else matters – whether it is the underlying fundamentals of a blue-chip DBS Group Holdings share or the demand for crude oil going forward.

And just to give an example of the surreal situation which the market is finding itself trapped in, I got this note from a Hong Kong broker this morning.

It advised investors to buy HSBC Holdings up to a price of HK$91 on hopes that it would rise to HK$98. But if the stock should fall to HK$85, investors should take the loss in the chin and clear out of the stock altogether.

Strange, that such a trading recommendation should be made, considering that HSBC appears to be properly chastened by its US adventure and could not seem to be getting out of the troubled US mortgage market fast enough. On the flipside, it had even despatched its CEO to Hong Kong to show that it meant business in Asia.

Surely, if its share price falls sharply, isn't it more attractive to buy more of the stock?

But that is the ridiculous situation we are finding ourselves in the market today.

The buy high, sell low syndrome is back.