Will Obamamania last in the markets?

2008-11-05T08:44:00Z

Alvin Foo examines the Obama effect on Asian trading on election day.

CALL it the Obama effect coupled with a Wall Street overnight rally.

The above sums up the double boost which the Asian stock markets enjoyed today following Mr Barack Obama’s swift win in the White House race.

A clear margin of victory was what regional equity investors were looking for in last night’s United States presidential election.

And that’s exactly what they got this morning.

As one broking house said yesterday: “If tonight’s US election ends with a clear winner, the Singapore market may rise tomorrow.”

Bingo.

Regional stocks needed little motivation to continue their recent resurgence after United States equities surged more than 3.3 per cent overnight for their biggest-ever election day rally.

That easily trumped the previous polling day record seen in 1984.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index soared more than 5 per cent to as high as 1,933 points, mirroring the rise of Mr Obama’s electoral vote count in pre-lunch trade.

The cheer was reflected elsewhere – in Hong Kong, Tokyo and Shanghai.

Investors believe that with the election uncertainty out of the way, US politicians will focus entirely on shoring up the economy.

And Mr Obama has been viewed as more likely to loosen the fiscal purse strings than Mr McCain.

But amid the initial euphoria, let’s not forget that the credit crisis has not been resolved. We’re still caught in a financial tsunami.

Once the dust settles and the post-election victory parades are done, Mr Obama has to tackle the crisis head-on.

The world is watching. His honeymoon period will be shortlived.

A mild reality check set in in the afternoon, as profit-taking struck Asian stocks, with key regional indexes coming off morning highs. European markets opened in the red.

Mr Obama has said he would aim to prevent another crisis by pushing for measures to curb the influence of lobbyists, streamline and strengthen regulatory agencies, crack down on no-bid government contracts and make government more open and transparent.

Regardless of the outcome, analysts were quick to warn that market turbulence will remain.

“Whoever gains power will be faced with the worst economic crisis for several decades ... The importance of the economy has been very clear in this election,” said an analyst.

Indeed, the big questions are still unanswered.

Will this bear rally be sustainable? Will the Obama effect fade away? How long will the President-elect and his team take to resolve the crisis?

Investors are still searching for answers, and they will want them fast.

The Straits Times Blogs - Alvin Foo

Will Obamamania last in the markets?