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	<title>The Straits Times Blogs &#187; William Choong </title>
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		<title>The act of burning bridges</title>
		<link>http://blogs.straitstimes.com/2008/09/10/the-act-of-burning-bridges/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.straitstimes.com/2008/09/10/the-act-of-burning-bridges/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 13:47:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Choong </dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[From Around The World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[russia]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[William Choong argues that Russia's recent moves make for a clear warning. ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>ON Tuesday, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that Washington would pull out from a major civilian nuclear cooperation deal with Russia. Understandably, the Russians were peeved and showed it, slamming the American decision as "erroneous and&nbsp;politicised".</p>
<p>Essentially, the latest spat between the two major powers - both equipped with enough nuclear weapons to pulverise Earth many times over - represents a record low in Russian-American relations.</p>
<p>For much of the 1990s, bilateral relations were buoyed as Russia sought Western help in rebuilding from the remains of the former Soviet Union. On August 8, 1999, all that changed when Vladimir Putin - a career KGB agent - ascended to the Russian presidency.</p>
<p>In a span of less than 10 years, Mr Putin rebuilt Russia, so much so that the country's coffers are now overflowing with monies earned from its vast oil and gas reserves. The former spy sought to restore the former glories of the Soviet Union - and he has poured US$100 billion into the rebuilding of the Russian military.</p>
<p>On 8 August, 2008 (incidentally, 9 years after Mr Putin's ascension into power), the Russian military under new president Dmitry Medvedev opened its first move.</p>
<p>After the former Soviet republic of Georgia sent troops into the restive region of South Ossetia, Russia sent in an numerically- and technologically-superior military force and drove Georgia's forces out of South Ossetia. To add insult to injury, Russian forces drove into the heart of Georgia, effectively cutting the country into two.</p>
<p>Russia's strategy in the past months has been explicitly clear: by demonstrating its military prowess in Georgia and warning it against joining NATO, Moscow drew a line in the sand. The message to the West: cross the line and bear the consequences.</p>
<p>Thomas Schelling - a respected strategic thinker who recently won the Nobel Prize for his lifetime work on game theory - has tagged this the strategy of burning bridges.</p>
<p>This is straightfoward enough: when your enemy is pursuing you, go near a bridge and burn it. Since you can do nothing but defend yourself, the enemy must rethink his alternatives, given that you are incapable of doing anything but resist him.</p>
<p>By offering to withdraw from Georgia and retreat into South Ossetia, Russia is rehashing the strategy described by Prof Schelling.</p>
<p>And thus far, Moscow's strategy is working. To Russia's ire, NATO has in recent years expanded closer to Russia's borders; the US has stationed ballistic missile defences in former Soviet states and is said to have supported democratic movements in Ukraine and Georgia.</p>
<p>But following Russia's Georgian adventure, the West has little wiggle room left. The choice is clear: do not let Georgia enter NATO, and all will be well (or at least remain at the status quo); let Georgia join NATO (i.e. cross the line) and bear the consequences.</p>
<p>The line in the sand cannot be made more explicit.</p>
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