By Ravi Velloor
South Asia Bureau Chief
velloor@sph.com.sg

 

Nepal's new government led by Mr Jhalanath Khanal is wracked by internal dissension and he has been unable to name a Cabinet thanks to internal wrangling over the two key defence and home portfolios.

However, with backing by the Maoists, the democracy activist - who was sworn in on Feb 6 - still holds the best chance of presiding over a moderately stable government that could finally pass the long-delayed constitution, analysts say.

With the help of the Maoists, whose leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal was ousted from the prime ministership - under Indian pressure in May 2009 - Mr Khanal’s Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninisit) has the support of about 60 per cent of the 601-seat legislators.

If you take away Mr Dahal’s Communist Party of India (Nepal)’s 238 seats, then Mr Khanal’s own party would hold only 22 per cent of the assembly.

Some worry that the development underscores a new polarisation in Nepal’s politics with democratic parties such as the Nepali Congress on one side, and Left wing groups bunched on the other.

Others think the Maoists will rule Nepal by proxy.

"This is going to be a case of the tail wagging the dog," said a senior Asian diplomat in Kathmandu. "Mr Khanal is a weak man and he will be led by the nose, by the Maoists. It is a matter of time that he falls."

However, it cannot be denied that a measure of stability, however tenuous, has returned to the mountain state.

Since the last government fell last June, there have been no fewer than 16 attempts to cobble together a new administration. Each time, the attempt fell through because no party could stitch together a majority.

Finally, a breakthrough was made possible because Mr Dahal, better known as Prachanda or the Fierce One, opted out of the race.

Instead, he brokered a deal with Mr Khanal, where the Maoists would secure the home ministry, while the other coveted defence portfolio would be alternated between the two sides.

Mr Khanal has not been able to deliver his end of the bargain because several key figures in his party oppose the portfolio distribution.

On the other hand, Mr Dahal has also had trouble convincing some of his key lieutenants of the wisdom of his move to concede power to Mr Khanal’s party despite holding more seats.

NOT ALL PESSIMISTIC

Not all area experts are pessimistic about Mr Khanal’s chances.

Prof S.D. Muni of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), probably the best-known outside voice on Nepalese politics, says there is no reason to believe Mr Khanal will be any less stable than his predecessors.

The extra support that Mr Khanal requires for a two-thirds majority - the number required to pass the constitution before the May 28 deadline - will probably come from parties representing people in the low-lying plains bordering the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

"Mr Khanal has the potential to work together with the Maoists," says Dr Muni. "The only sticking point is the integration of the Maoist cadres. The army will object to any en bloc integration of the Maoists. India, and the US too, will not be comfortable."

The Maoists are said to have an estimated 19,000 fighters and demand that all be fully integrated into the Nepal Army.

That demand has been met with stiff resistance from the generals, who baulk at the thought of former guerillas sharing bunkers and living quarters with the force that took them on for almost a full decade.

The Maoist fighters now live in camps dotted around the country.

Nepalese, meanwhile, are eager to see the politicians get on with their job of administering the nation that emerged from a century and a half of monarchy in 2006.

In January, Mr Devi Prasad Regmi, a supporter of Mr Khanal’s party, slapped him in public to express his anger at the continued political wrangling in Kathmandu.

Mr Prachanda cited that incident as one reason he stepped aside to make a political solution possible.

velloor@sph.com.sg