By Nirmal Ghosh
Thailand Correspondent
nirmal@sph.com.sg

 

THE Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT) was packed on Feb 18, for a talk by government spokesman Dr Panitan Wattanayagorn, and a panel discussion featuring former Cabinet minister and now highly regarded political commentator Suranand Vejjajiva, and Federico Ferrara, a professor at the National University of Singapore, blogger, and author of the trenchant new book Thailand Unhinged.

The size of the audience reflected the level of concern over the political tension surrounding the court decision due on Feb 26, on whether the state is justified in seizing around US$2 billion worth of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s assets.

The police backed by the army has thrown a protective ring around Bangkok. There is much saber-rattling in the ranks of the red shirts of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) – though the leadership has stressed that its demonstrations will not be violent.

But key government figures have done their part to ratchet up fear of the Red Shirts.

"It seems like there are people on both sides who are intent on precipitating this to some extent; each has its own calculations. The government’s posture in this regard is not encouraging at all", Professor Ferrara said at the FCCT.

"The scaremongering and the demonization of the opposition that you hear every day in the papers; the mysterious grenade attacks; it seems like from the old playbook."

"This is stuff that’s been happening here for 35 years. You rile up the population that are kind of neutral, you scare them to such an extent that when something does happen, when the regime really does crack down, when perhaps the army does take over, they are seen as the ones who are restoring order and protecting the unity of the nation, not the ones who are undermining the order and the unity of the nation as they have for the last 35 years."

It is a cat and mouse game, with bluff and counter-bluff, and nobody quite knows how the chips will fall.

Against the nervousness in political circles, is the paradoxical picture of a capital city that despite travel advisories from a string of western governments, seems perfectly normal, with tourists still arriving and hotels heavily booked.

I moderated the evening's discussions, which were lively and occasionally feisty. Later I mined my recordings for some excerpts which have not found their way into my reports in the print edition of The Straits Times.

Dr Panitan, clearly constrained by his role as government spokesman, had been told, he said, to say as little as possible. But he said quite a lot, and gamely fielded all questions, occasionally raising a laugh, and occasionally hitting a grimly emotional note that silenced the audience.

"The political situation in Thailand is in a very fundamental and interesting transitional period," he said.

"It has been like that for several years. 26th February or not, decision day or not, (Thailand) will continue to transform in politics, economics, in social and other issues for many years to come."

"We have to be prepared to handle such a.. life changing era for Thailand. We have to be ready for whatever comes, and I believe in the great resilience of the Thais. This is not the first time we have been through a very interesting period.. every time the Thais manage to come up with a new society stronger than ever."

He said Thailand’s "friends" should not lose faith. "I don’t know if it will be to your liking, but we will emerge, in our Thai way," he said.

"I don’t even know if we can settle our differences. It may be years or even decades before we can settle our differences. Indeed differences are very normal in a democratic society, we just have to handle it in a peaceful way, an orderly way."

"We acknowledge that differences will continue. Peace and order is our aim. We are not going to look for ways to solve political differences in the next few weeks. We are going to ask for peace and stability."

And citing the street violence of recent years as well as violence in the south, he admitted that Thailand was currently not a "normal" society.

"I think we are at war, a different type of war," he said.