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November 22, 2009 Sunday

ST Breaking News | Blogs | On The Money
Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
Heading into the fall
September 02, 2009 Wednesday, 12:45 PM
Goh Eng Yeow examines the bumps preventing indices from going higher.

SEPTEMBER has, so far, turned out to be a nervous month for traders, as autumn trading officially commences in the United States and Europe.

The approaching first anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers had cast an unwelcome spotlight on a host of unsavoury practices on Wall Street yet to be resolved.

Last night was particularly worrisome, as US financials plunged. Big gainers from last month like Citigroup plunged 9.2 per cent and Bank of America lost 6.4 per cent. 

But just as I had observed in a February posting about certain blue-chips enjoying a natural floor price as the market plunged, there also appears to be hurdles which stock indices will have to surmount before the markets can conquer their Lehman anniversary jitters. 

Take the S&P 500 index. It had been dancing around the 1,000 support/resistance level for the past two weeks. This was also around the level which it had initially sunk to, a fortnight after Lehman’s collapse last September. 

As for the Hang Seng, it has been oscillating around the 20,000 support level for more than a month now. It is surprising but true that the index was also at this level in the week before Lehman’s collapse. 

For the STI, it is obvious that it must breach the 2,600 level in order to regain its upswing momentum, after regaining this level on July 28. Like the Hang Seng, STI’s current level of 2,566 brought it back to levels 12 months ago before Lehman failed. 

The 2,600 psychological barrier for the STI is important in another sense. On Jan 3, 2000, the STI hit a then all-time high of 2,608  - a record which was to remain standing for six years until it was finally smashed in October 2006. 

Unless the STI could break out of its current gridlock, the 2007 bull-run, which caused it to surge to a record high of 3,831, might turn out to be an anomaly unlikely to be repeated any time soon. 



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Total comments: 5
citizenlost
September 18, 2009 Friday

Just in case you did not check your other blog, Mr Goh.
------------------------------------------------------
Every day Mr Goh you learn something new.
Where were you, since you are The Markets Correspondent.
By the way, is that Tekka Market?
Not a blip from you. Have they got you by the short and curlies to remain dumb?
Were you there or were you hiding under a banyan tree?
We see ST sent a certain Alvin Foo to take notes ONLY at the news conference.
Bet he shivered in his socks.
Anyhow, file this, for future records because we will never read in The Straits Times.
Reprinted.
==========================
By Joyce Koh

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Temasek Holdings Pte, Singapore’s $122 billion state investment company, reported profit fell a record 66 percent as a collapse in credit markets drove down the value of its stakes in Bank of America Corp. and Barclays Plc.

Net income declined to S$6.2 billion ($4.4 billion) in the 12 months to March 31, down from a record S$18.2 billion a year earlier, Temasek said in its annual report today. The value of investments, which plunged S$55 billion in the period, has since rebounded to S$172 billion as of July 31.

The government-owned company sold last fiscal year its Bank of America and Barclays stakes at a loss as part of S$16 billion of divestments. Temasek, which in July cancelled the appointment of Charles “Chip” Goodyear to replace Chief Executive Officer Ho Ching, has pledged to work more closely with companies in a portfolio that spans financial services, real estate, energy, transportation and telecommunications on at least four continents.

So one can imagine the amount of obscene profit Ho Jinx ....oops...we mean Ho Ching...is making. So much that she can still turn in a profit despite the massive losses from her overseas gambling escapades!

“Like every fund manager, they took their lumps,” said David Cohen, an economist at Action Economics in Singapore, before the announcement. “They will be able to talk about a rebound; after all, the past six months have seen a strong rebound in global equities.”

The profit decline was deeper than the 44 percent drop in the MSCI World Index that wiped about $24 trillion from the value of global equities in the 12 months to end March. A measure of financial companies on the benchmark slumped 57 percent after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September last year froze credit markets.

“We have been building up our liquidity methodically over the last two years with a net cash position as we were mindful of a possible downturn,” Ho, 56, said in a statement today. “However, we did not anticipate the speed and ferocity of the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression.”

Even the Tom, Dick and Harry in the street could see it and she could not? Or it's cos they're left unchecked and have 0 accountability to the people?

The value of Temasek’s investments fell 30 percent to S$130 billion in the year to March 31, the company. As of July 31, the value of holdings recovered to S$172 billion, 7 percent below the March 2008 peak of S$185 billion, according to the report. The MSCI World Index has risen 66 percent since a March low on speculation the worst of the global recession has passed.

Which is a 32% rise. Again, she underperformed the index by a wide margin!

The 30 percent drop in “total shareholder return” beat the 36 percent decline in the MSCI World Index, Temasek said.

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, Europe’s largest, lost a record 633 billion kroner ($90.5 billion) in 2008 as investments dropped 23 percent.

Temasek has had an annual return of 16 percent since its inception in 1974, according to the report, down from 18 percent annualized it reported August 2008.

Ho said Temasek will continue to focus on Asia. As of March 31, 31 percent of the company’s investments were in Singapore, 43 percent in the rest of Asia, 22 percent in nations within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and 4 percent in Latin America.

“We believe the worst of the global meltdown risks are behind us,” Ho, who is also the wife of Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, said in prepared remarks at a briefing today. “While there are some green shoots of growth, some structural risks still remain for the medium term. The global economy is expected to have a sluggish recovery in 2010.”

Temasek has slowed investments after losing money on financial companies. Along with Kuwait Investment Authority and China Investment Corp., Temasek was among sovereign funds that helped struggling U.S. investment banks replenish capital.

The company invested S$9 billion in the period, down from S$32 billion the year before. Of that, S$3 billion was in rights offerings by companies in its portfolio, including London-based Standard Chartered Plc, DBS Group Holdings Ltd. and Singapore’s CapitaLand Ltd.

The state-owned investment company, set up to foster development of Singapore’s banks, airlines and ports, is the biggest shareholder in five of Singapore’s 10 biggest publicly traded companies by market value including Singapore Telecommunications Ltd., Southeast Asia’s biggest phone company, and DBS, the region’s largest bank by assets.

It held 68 percent of PT Bank Danamon Indonesia, 6 percent of China Construction Bank Corp., 8 percent of India’s ICICI Bank Ltd. and 19 percent of Standard Chartered as of March 31, according to the report. Financial firms now make up 33 percent of Temasek’s portfolio, down from 40 percent.

“We are open to investing in financial institutions if and when the right opportunity comes, if and when the right valuations come,” Ho said at the briefing.

In the first quarter this year, Temasek sold its 3.8 percent stake in Bank of America, which it received after the bank bought Merrill Lynch & Co., at a loss that may have totaled $4.6 billion. It also sold its 2 percent stake in London-based Barclays.

The company didn’t detail the size of those losses in its annual report. Shares of Bank of America have climbed 23 percent this year, after a 66 percent slide in 2008, while Barclays is up 148 percent, following a 69 percent plunge last year.

Temasek, wholly owned by Singapore’s Ministry of Finance, also is paring investments at home. This month, it agreed to sell its 62 percent stake in Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd., the world’s third-biggest maker of customized semiconductors, to Abu Dhabi for S$2.5 billion, ending a 22-year investment in the unprofitable firm.

“We are in a very good net cash position and if market values fall, it could be a very good time to invest,” Ho said.

Sovereign wealth fund total assets declined by almost 17 percent to $3 trillion from the end of 2007 to this year, Deutsche Bank AG said in a report in July.

Losses have prompted management changes at government-owned funds. Norges Bank Investment Management, which oversees Government Pension Fund - Global, named a new team of executives after its record loss last year wiped out gains from 12 years of investing Norway’s oil and gas revenue.

Dubai investment firm Istithmar World may be the first sovereign wealth fund to liquidate after a $27 billion spending spree financed largely with borrowed money, people briefed on the matter said last week. Its two co-chief investment officers are leaving the fund.

It's noteworthy that Ms Ho Ching is still in charge!!

Temasek aborted the appointment of Goodyear, the ex-BHP Billiton Ltd. boss tapped in February to become the investment fund’s first foreign chief executive, over “strategic differences.”

Ho said today Temasek is looking at both internal and external candidates as the process to find a replacement continues.




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foreignercitizen
September 17, 2009 Thursday

Temasek profit slumps 66%!!
Shock, horror!!!
But hang on.
This has since recovered by $42 billion, or 32 per cent, to $172 billion as of July, as world stock markets have rebounded sharply since March. This brings the sovereign wealth fund's portfolio up to 93 per cent of its peak year end value.

So,Mr Goh Eng Yeow, when are you going to prostrate yourself in front of Ms Ho Ching and the Temasek Board...and sing their praises.
After all, your boss is watching.



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Sebastian
September 05, 2009 Saturday

Free fall - does it means we will be getting a lightning curve situation?

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Fook Seng
September 03, 2009 Thursday

Wow. We are at the same level as the Lehmann collapse, Isn't that good.

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Nancy
September 02, 2009 Wednesday

The STI has no 'wings' to soar on its own, it has to depend on the regional or Dow Jones indexes to help break through its current gridlock. For stock indexes to scale great heights, the world has to swallow some bitter pills and put its house in order first.

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