Min:24 °C Max:32 °C
» Weather Details
November 23, 2009 Monday

ST Breaking News | Blogs | On The Money
Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
Shanghai blues
July 30, 2009 Thursday, 10:27 AM
Goh Eng Yeow comments on the nervous China stock markets.

After almost doubling for the year, the exuberant Shanghai stock market suddenly crashed by almost 8 per cent before closing 5 per cent down on Wednesday.

As I write, the Shanghai Composite Index is up about 1 per cent after opening bell, staging a technical rebound after yesterday’s horrendous sell-off.

Much has been published in the past few days over the vast inflow of hot money into the region, especially China. I had also written on the subject in The Straits Times yesterday.

This huge deluge of liquidity has been further exacerbated by massive lending by mainland banks since November last year when China unleashed a huge financial stimulus programme to fight a flagging export drive which threatened to derail its economic growth.

It is not surprising to find some of this borrowed money making its way into the Shanghai market which was the worst performing bourse last year.

But in the subsequent buying frenzy, share prices rose so high that many are worried that a fresh asset bubble is being blown in China.

The leakage of hot money out of China has also propelled Hong Kong and Singapore sharply higher.

After all, traders reason the valuations of these two Asian financial centres must rise to catch up with Shanghai’s soaring prices – even though their open and vulnerable economies are still coping with the aftermath of last year’s financial crisis.

So what should investors do under such circumstances ?

The rally is largely driven by a huge surge of liquidity coasting through the region. For those tracking the market full-time, there will be plenty of trading opportunities, as traders try to guess which way the hot money will move next.

Last year, crude oil experienced a similar liquidity-drenched surge which propelled its price to a record high of US$148 a barrel in July. It subsequently collapsed to a mere US$36 five months later, as the world economic situation turned sour again.



Tags: , , , ,

 
Total comments: 3
KS Wong
August 01, 2009 Saturday

Wait till October when Q3 corporate results starts to roll in without the benefit of cost-cutting measures, a major correction could be likely. No company can cut cost to prosperity, only thru improved sales via consumption will there be genuine business growth and long term prosperity. What we have so far seen from Q2 results are largely improved numbers thru drastic cost cutting measures, lower base overheads from declining rent, wages, etc; and for the banks they were merely the result of cosmetic accounting tricks by shifting toxic assets/investments out of the bank's balance sheet. Wall St numbers cannot be taken just from the surface.

comment 6261 | Offensive? Report this comment
Hirza
July 30, 2009 Thursday

People speculate over just about anything thus the cause of a financial crisis will never be due to just one single factor. Put the blame on this innate human nature of ours.

comment 6235 | Offensive? Report this comment
Nancy
July 30, 2009 Thursday

The current stock market frenzy is the work of the government. Historical record had shown that loosening lending always lead to excessive speculation be it stock or property. Most people want to make easy and fast buck and it is only through speculation that they can achieve their goal.

comment 6233 | Offensive? Report this comment

Your comments are welcome. The following rules apply:

(1) Stay on topic;
(2) No abuse, please;
(3) No personal attacks;
(4) No curse words;
(5) Don't SCREAM in ALL CAPS!

To encourage a meaningful and pleasant dialogue, comments may be deleted. We look forward to your participation!

Best viewed at 1152x864 resolution with IE 6.0 or FireFox 2.0 and above Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Co. Regn No. 198402868E | Privacy Statement | Terms & Conditions