Min:24 °C Max:32 °C
» Weather Details
November 23, 2009 Monday

ST Breaking News | Blogs | On The Money
Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
STI’s rocket-like ascent
July 28, 2009 Tuesday, 03:35 PM
Goh Eng Yeow comments on the regional market's exuberance.

THE benchmark Straits Times Index has shot up like a rocket in the past three week.

In the past hour, it has surged past the 2,600 level – its highest intra-day level since Sept 10 last year.

This means that in the past fortnight, STI had breached first the 2,400, then the 2,500 and now the 2,600 level — giving it an average gain of 100 points every week.

In doing so, it was basically retracing the steps it had taken during its retreat last September when it fell by about 100 points weekly.

Much has been written about the sustainability of this rally, since major stock markets went on the roll, after investment bank Goldman Sachs blew the breath away with its record quarterly profit of US$3.44 billion (S$4.94 billion) three weeks ago.

It is interesting that the two counters responsible for STI's charge today are DBS Group Holdings and CapitaLand.

These are respectively the largest financial group and largest property developer by market value which are listed on the Singapore Exchange and a reflection that investors are going for the biggest listed firms in Singapore.

What is driving the rally is a deluge of liquidity pouring into the region on hopes that the economies would experience a V-shaped recovery.

But the ride up has been both scary and exhilarating. Will it last?

The nearest equivalent to the current rally was the sharp rebound experienced after the August 2007 crash when regional markets went on a similar V-shaped trajectory on hopes that China would allow its citizens to directly invest in stocks overseas.

That rally lasted about one and a half months, before running out of steam.



Tags: , , , ,

 
Total comments: 10
amanstbasher
August 14, 2009 Friday

For those who want to, here is a site to broaden your horizon.
I chanced upon....... http://www.p65.sg/
An open, inclusive platform for Singaporeans to share their experience with.
Something the ST does not encourage in its Forum pages, unless it suits the ST to publish, that is.
By the way, did someone say these (ST) blogs are getting boring!!



comment 6478 | Offensive? Report this comment
citizenlost
August 05, 2009 Wednesday

A friend emailed this to me:

Maybe why Goodyear gave up. He couldn't suss out how a $58b loss became $40b loss.
So if he is to make $10b profit in his first year, it may turn out to be a loss of $8b as the missing $18b will come out in the wash.
Maybe he realised the maths could not add up.
And really did not want to be the fall-guy.
Better he took the money and ran,now.
Do you blame him?
How you think, Mr EY Goh?



comment 6366 | Offensive? Report this comment
dontwantreadanymore
July 31, 2009 Friday

This piece, emailed to me and written by someone I know not whom, appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald (30/7), deserves a wider audience.
-----------------------

"EVEN the normally lap-dog Straits Times was moved to ask how ‘‘private sector’’ can Temasek really be, commenting: ‘‘Like it or not, Temasek cannot get away from the fact that it is inextricably linked to the Singapore Government."

LUMBERED WITH THE BOSS'S WIFE!!

Singaporeans aren’t usually given to open criticism of the Lee family that has ruled them for half a century. Rightly or wrongly, some presume that in their tightly controlled island state, walls have ears, and one never knows who is listening.

But this time it’s different. Singaporeans are deeply displeased with their Prime Minister’s wife, Ho Ching. She has run Temasek Holdings, the state-owned fund, since 2002, and has presided over a spectacular series of misjudgments that have lost Singaporeans billions.

There was the murky $3 billion deal she made in Bangkok in 2006, to buy then Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra out of his telco. Ho’s massive plunges into European and American banks ended in tears last year when Temasek lost a third of its $100 billion portfolio. In Australia, Ho lost Temasek’s entire $400 million stake she’d plunged into Eddie Groves’ ABC Learning Centres, among other mis-steps.

So much for her much-lauded ‘‘Superwoman’’ smarts and vision when the state appointed her, even though her pre-Temasek record at Temasek-owned arms supplier Singapore Technologies was hardly Sorosesque. Today, Singaporeans are tired of Ho and have been for some time. They want her out of Temasek, lest she create any more financial havoc for them.

Except she’s not going.
In a February ‘‘transition’’ — not a sacking, as Temasek spun furiously — Ho was supposed to hand over Temasek to Chip Goodyear, the 51-year-old American (and North Melbourne supporter) who pointed BHP-Billiton at China for four years and made billions.

The big idea was that Goodyear would fix the mess Ho made in banking and tilt Singapore into the booming China and India growth stories, which meant placing Temasek at the middle of big regional resources plays. But that, too, has ended in tears, when Temasek last week cited ‘‘strategic differences,’’ announcing it was "mutually agreed" Goodyear would not become CEO.

It seems clear that after five months hanging around the Temasek office, Goodyear has been paid millions for his life-long silence.

But only a few days earlier, Goodyear was doing the rounds of Temasek satellites mapping out his vision. One CEO I spoke to expressed shock, saying he had been on the ‘‘same page’’ as Goodyear and was looking forward to working with him. The implication was clear: Goodyear was a genuine businessperson whereas Ho was not.

That was mid-July. A week later, Chip was chopped. Temasek’s board met the weekend before last, then announced Goodyear was gone. So what happened?

The Government-controlled Straits Times said Goodyear’s proposals to shake up Temasek were viewed as "too risky" by the board.
Too risky?
Ho’s bad bets in banks lost Temasek around $30 billion. What could be riskier than that?

More likely is the take doing the rounds of Singapore’s banking and business communities. Local insiders, under few illusions that little happens at Temasek without Government say-so, say the Government has been spooked by the arrest in China of Rio-Tinto executive Stern Hu.

Temasek hired Goodyear because they wanted him to do for it what he had done at BHP, expertly play China, which is far more politically important for an Asian nation such as tiny Chinese-dominated Singapore than it is for a global mining giant. But after the Chinese Government arrested Hu and sent a message it was taking back control of its resources management, it wouldn’t do now, they say, for a foreigner who knows so much about Chinese resources to front mostly Singapore Inc’s ambitions in China.

One observer was moved to suggest that it's all a smokescreen and they will never ever let an outsider run with the pack. He (or she) will never be allowed to see what truly goes on behind those hallowed walls.

The handling of Goodyear has deeply embarrassed Singapore and seems to give lie to the fiction that Temasek operates transparently and separately from Government policy. And knowing, too, how deep runs the anger among its readers that Ho has squandered a big chunk of their nest egg.

Even the normally lap-dog Straits Times was moved to ask how ‘‘private sector’’ can Temasek really be, commenting: ‘‘Like it or not, Temasek cannot get away from the fact that it is inextricably linked to the Singapore Government’’.

It’s shaken up the arcane world of sovereign wealth funds too, where Temasek liked to portray itself as the model for emerging wealthy states. Delegations from around the world made pilgrimages to Singapore to see how it was done, how their state’s strategic jewels can be packaged and managed into an investment vehicle that maintained the illusion it was somehow separated from the Government.

East Timor decided the Temasek model wasn’t for them, and chose a Norwegian-inspired transparent route for its now $6 billion petroleum royalties pile. In many respects, it’s actually a model for Temasek. Certainly, the East Timorese fund made more money than Temasek has recently — it invested in boring US treasury bonds while Ho was plunging billions into Merrill Lynch.

Unsurprisingly, Temasek’s model appeals more to the more authoritarian and less democratic of states, such as Kazakhstan which, like Singapore, is run along family lines.

Now Singapore Inc is in a pickle. It said it wants to internationalise Temasek, and appointing the much-respected Goodyear was a huge – and widely welcomed – statement. Now it’s stuck with Ho, for at least another year, which simply deepens the market’s conviction that dealing with Temasek is akin to de facto dealing with the Government.

Temasek says it is continuing its international search for a new boss. But after Goodyear’s bad year at Temasek, why would anyone want to go there?



comment 6256 | Offensive? Report this comment
q
July 29, 2009 Wednesday

You bought OCBC at 4 dollars => that would be Mar 09 , when Mdm Ho sold BOA.

comment 6224 | Offensive? Report this comment
citizenlost
July 29, 2009 Wednesday

"SINGAPORE state investor Temasek said its portfolio slid by at least $40 billion, or more than a fifth, in the year to March."

So what say you, Mr E Y Goh, or are you still gobsmacked by the slide?
Also is there something within the ST that only publishes less than flattering pictures of Ms Ho Ching.
Can't be that her wardrobe is so limited!!
We seem to see the same pix all the time!!!

comment 6221 | Offensive? Report this comment

Your comments are welcome. The following rules apply:

(1) Stay on topic;
(2) No abuse, please;
(3) No personal attacks;
(4) No curse words;
(5) Don't SCREAM in ALL CAPS!

To encourage a meaningful and pleasant dialogue, comments may be deleted. We look forward to your participation!

Best viewed at 1152x864 resolution with IE 6.0 or FireFox 2.0 and above Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Co. Regn No. 198402868E | Privacy Statement | Terms & Conditions