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November 23, 2009 Monday

ST Breaking News | Blogs | On The Money
Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
Liquidity-driven rally
June 04, 2009 Thursday, 12:58 PM
Goh Eng Yeow on the contradictions between the stock market & real economy.

ONE reader wrote this morning to ask about this apparent contradiction between the gloom in the real economy and the exuberance being experienced in the stock market.

He wondered why there is a liquidity-driven rally, even though the US government has not implemented its programme to encourage private sector investors to buy the toxic assets from US banks.

“Since this theoretically means that the credit line is not easing yet, why is liquidity flooding back into the market ?” he asked.

Many other investors must be wondering as well.

There is a report this morning that the US government is putting the pilot sale of toxic assets on hold.

“Banks have been able to raise capital without having to sell bad assets through the LLP, which reflects renewed investor confidence in our banking system,” said Ms Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the agency appointed to run the scheme.

Like some other stock market commentators, I still believe that this is a bear market rally – albeit a very powerful one.

What triggered the sharp spike in stock prices worldwide since March was the huge sum of money printed by the US Fed and other central banks to shore up the frail global financial system.

The same month, there was also the suspension of the “marked to market” rule which allow banks to essentially keep their toxic assets at values which might be well above what they might be worth on the open market.

It is interesting to record the cynicism expressed by veteran investors who had lived through previous bear cycles.

This was what Mr Jim Rogers had to say during a recent TV interview on the recent rally: “You give me 5 or 6 trillion dollars, I'll show you a very good time, there's no question about that."

But this still fails to solve the basic problems which have been afflicting the troubled US and European economies – too much debt and too much consumption.



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Total comments: 6
Lawrence Chee
June 08, 2009 Monday

The beauty of the market is always no one really knows. So if you want to be in the market always be prepare for any event
that can happen; and yet you can still survive and still believe in the market.
And I have to always try to remind myself of mine outlook of the market. For no matter what, I have been carried away by the market many times. But I still manage to survive till today. And I still believe in the market. I hope the market will be a Lifetime Hobby for me.
And now, I am about 10 to 15 % down, But I hope I will survive till the next bull come charging at me.

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TEO yt
June 06, 2009 Saturday

It is liquidity driven ALL over the World and NOT just in the US. It is because of what OBAMA said, "CHANGE". Depositors started their thinking and changed their mindsets. Depositors felt exploited by the banks fixing interest rates (Cost of Capital) below the Inflation Rate turning Capital into a wasting asset. Interest Rates on Bank Deposits should be transacted by OPEN TENDER like the COE and NOT to be fixed by the banks' oligopoly. The deposit system has a systematic flaw. It is NOT a Win-Win solution, It makes the banks win all and the depositors lose all. As a matter of fact, the depositors would rather hold on to an investment knowing that what came down will go UP. In this way, the Depositors will take charge to UPTURND the downturn since the banks cannot do it. The economics have been repeated so many times until every layman knows what is happening. Peters have all reached their levels of incompetencies. It is simply the depositors who are taking out their bank deposits and be in charge of own precious capital which should not be fixed-deposited into a wasting asset. The banks must be fair to the depositors that capital is a Growth Asset and NOT a Wasting Asset. The banks take S$1 deposit and pays 0.5% but lends out at least S$10 (= S$1 x 10) at 3% loan interest rate earning 30% (= 3% x 10) of loan interests. There should be at least the decency to pay a minimum of One Time Loan Interest Rate (3%) if not more humanely a 2 times (6%) loan interest rate as the deposit interst rate.
In this OBAMA era, every depositor needs to be TRANSFORMED into an OBAMA Depositor and take charge of own GOOD CAPITAL GOVERNANCE. CHEERS! to OBAMA depositors and STOP all the BLIND GUESSING.

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John
June 04, 2009 Thursday

By now, I think there is little chance to 'hope' for a bear rally if you have not bought any stocks when market was at record low.

Those who have bought before the market rally will not sell and will hold on to their stocks for dividend payment. The fact remains that interest rates are so low that there is no where to park our funds with good return. Dividend payment is still better.

Hence for those who have missed buying from record low, they now will have to pay a higher price if they want to keep buy the shares.

Retail investors are in no hurry to sell when they are sitting on gains. Many in Singapore are still cash rich. Blue chips are still a good 'bet' at this level and fund will not sell anytime so soon with interest rates so low.

No doubt, economy is still bad but dividend payouts of blue chips are still better than the 0.5% on FD for 12 months.

It is unlikely for the markets to correct drastically though not impossible.





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Yeoda
June 04, 2009 Thursday

When the market retreats 20% from the high, the experts will say a bear trend has started.
So likewise when the market rises 20% above the low, a new bull trend has began.
And this trend has been going for sometime now.

So why are u still nit-picking n refusing to see the obvious? That this is only a bear rally?

We traders don't care. We trade what we see, not what we want to see. If u still want to see that this is only a bear market rally, despite all contrasting signs, then stay out of the market.

Market is always right.



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Koon
June 04, 2009 Thursday

Eng Yeow,

Thank you for your reply to my query. I share your view completely.

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