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November 08, 2009 Sunday

ST Breaking News | Blogs | On The Money
Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
The tide recedes for Asian equities
June 23, 2009 Tuesday, 10:46 AM
Goh Eng Yeow examines the stock market's outlook going forward

INVESTING one’s hard-earned nesteggs is serious business.

Still, I must say that I am pleasantly surprised to get so many responses, thanking me for my Sunday Times column "Lessons from the financial crisis" two weeks ago.

Quite a number of readers have also noted that I am an avid tracker of the flow of funds in and out of the various Asian markets. They want to know where they can also find the data to do likewise.

I replied to all the queries by referring to a blog which I wrote last month. I get my report on fund flows from Citigroup every Monday and it has turned out to be one of my most important reading materials for the week.

And readers are reaping the benefit of getting privileged information which only big-time fund managers have access to, when I subsequently reproduce the report as an article.

Today, I wrote another fund flow piece in The Straits Times to report that there had been a net flow of money out of greater China funds last week – the first time this had occurred since March when regional markets bottomed out.

I must thank Citigroup strategist Elaine Chu for kindly sharing the raw data on the fund flows with me. The article would have been impossible to write otherwise.

Going by the manner in which inflow of funds into China funds has been slowing to a trickle, it is only be a matter of weeks before foreign investors start taking money out of them as well.

This will have implications on the Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan bourses where a large number of listed firms also have heavy exposure to mainland China.

It looks like the trigger for any sell-off on regional equities will come from Wall Street whose fund managers may need to trim their exposure in Asia in order to offset losses back home.

The only bright spot in the world of equities at the moment is Asia and foreign fund managers will be desperate to display some good results to show to their investors.

With the half-year drawing to a close next Tuesday, some window-dressing is still possible to shore up stock prices at close to their current levels.

After that, it is anyone’s guess how regional stock markets may move.

We will be entering a period which is traditionally shrouded in uncertainties.

August has traditionally been a jittery period for the stock market. The US sub-prime crisis started in August 2007. The seeds for Lehman Brothers’ destruction were sown in August last year.

Looking back over the past 100 years, the First World War started officially on August 1, 1914, while the Second World War commenced at end-August, 1939.

Also coinciding with this uncertain period is the seventh month on the Chinese lunar calendar which starts from August 20 this year – the so-called ghost month.

Even though we live in the space age and has put men on the moon, some deep-seated beliefs still hold fast. Both the property and stock market traditionally slow down during this period and this year will be no exception.



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Total comments: 6
foreignercitizen
July 13, 2009 Monday

What say you, Mr EY Goh?

from the ST....13/7/09
"RESTARTING STALLED MACAU PROJECTS
Mr Adelson said he was aiming to restart the stalled projects in Macau later this year once Las Vegas Sands completes a fund-raising exercise for US$3.5 billion (S$5.1 billion).
A sale or public listing of the Macau assets are among the options being explored to raise the money, including US$2 billion needed to complete the projects in the Chinese territory, he said.

The construction of new casinos in Macau and Singapore has been delayed after the global financial crisis hit both economies hard and Mr Adelson's company Las Vegas Sands ran into funding problems.
Once ranked the third wealthiest American by Forbes Magazine until the meltdown wiped out a substantial chunk of his fortune, he was forced to inject one billion dollars of his own money into Las Vegas Sands."
=================

This is from someone who has read the smoke signals.....and I have copied it here for your reading pleasure.


Are we being told the whole truth and nothing but...


Other casinos are scaling back operations or closing down...even Mr Trumps cannot take it in the US!

How can a tiny red dot survive in this kind of financial crisis without the state

pumping in billions of $ thru other so called investment vehicles!

In November last year, this website reported how Las Vegas
Sands managed to raise a stunning $2.1 billion in an
amazingly short span of time, an achievement that makes one
say “hmmm..."

Now we have found another piece of the puzzle that moves
us closer to filling in the jigsaw on what makes Mr
Adelson's Singapore project continue to hobble along
even as the other casino projects fall like ten pins.

To recap: Sands Corporation announced in November 2008 that
it was going bankrupt. The alarm bells rang so loud that it
awakened even the Minister Mentor who declared that Marina
Sands project which was awarded to Mr Adelson's company,
would go on even as it is "under pressure."

But at what cost? Apparently none to us taxpayers in
Singapore because according to the Senior Minister of State
for Trade and Industry S Iswaran, no bailout money came from
the Government as the development "has always been a
commercial project."

Perhaps. But in Singapore the line between the commercial
and state sectors is as firm as warm butter.

And the dairy spread got a little warmer as Las
Vegas Sands announced
the appointment of a Mr Jeffrey Schwartz as a member of its
board of directors.

And it just so happens, according to the Private Equity
Real Estate, that Mr Schwartz is a
chairman and chief executive officer of Global Logistic
Properties (GLP), a company the GIC recently acquired for
US$1.3 billion and renamed (originally called ProLogis Asian Operations).

Now that we know GLP's Schwartz has recently become Las
Vegas Sands' Schwartz, the next we need to ask is how Mr
Schwartz got into Mr Adelson's board of directors and
what in the heck is he doing there.

Did the pumping of $2 billion into Las Vegas Sands originate from
Singapore? And does Mr Schwartz's appointment to
Sands' board have anything to do with GIC opening the valve?

If it does, is the PAP Government still of the view that
there is no bailout of Sands' by the people of Singapore
(many of whom, by the way, was opposed to the project) and
that the development of Marina Sands is strictly a
commercial project?

Are we throwing good public money after bad? Worse, is it
being used to save the face of the Government who made a
very bad decision to go into the gaming industry when the
industry is crumbling?

Not only is Sands' going kaput, Donald
Trump's casino group filed for Chapter 11,
and Macau's casinos have one leg in the grave.

And there's no guarantee that the Marina project is
going to be completed on time and on budget. After that,
whether it is going to become a virile bull or a white
elephant is any body's guess.

But one thing is certain, Singaporeans will have to
continue to foot the bill.

$2 billion? No problem!
There's seems lot's more from where it came.





comment 5901 | Offensive? Report this comment
pimpkid
July 01, 2009 Wednesday

C'mon. The goods are still in the warehouse, and who's buying?

What we are seeing is the effect of the money mill...and real estate goons just can't wait to spin this as equivalent to liquidity.

The data is in the books....not in the stock price chart.

IT'S IN THE BOOKS, PEOPLE!!!!!

comment 5657 | Offensive? Report this comment
Lyncoln
June 24, 2009 Wednesday

Hi,

Thanks for all the insightful info you've always provided. I would just like to ask how we can subscribe to the weekly report from CitiBank (Elaine Chu) which you referred to.

Thanks!

comment 5578 | Offensive? Report this comment
Lyndon
June 23, 2009 Tuesday

How about Chinese liquidity continuing to increase in real estate and other investments in Asia, including Singapore? Maybe this will keep equity prices from dipping significantly. Something to think about.

comment 5576 | Offensive? Report this comment
Nancy
June 23, 2009 Tuesday

You offer very incisive reporting on the stock market happenings. Reading your articles provides fresh insights on stock trading. Thank you.

comment 5574 | Offensive? Report this comment

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