In Kuala Lumpur

SEVEN by-elections in 14 months is excessive, by any standard, and some Malaysians seem to be getting suspicious.

Are the by-elections being manufactured to keep the opposition winning streak going? The opposition had won four out of the last five. Each time, it seemed like another nail in the coffin for the Barisan Nasional.

The sixth will be held on May 31, and a seventh became a possibility after an opposition MP declared his intention to quit.

In the last electoral term from 2004 to 2008, there were just six by-elections in four years.

Three of the earlier by-elections were clearly legit, since their MPs or state assemblymen had died. But another three were caused by resignations of the incumbent – all three from Parti Keadilan Rakyat, the party of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim.

The first was caused by his wife who resigned her Permatang Pauh seat to allow Mr Anwar to contest, the second by a state assemblyman in Kedah who was accused of bigamy, and the third by an assemblyman in Penang who was being investigated for graft.

The seventh by-election looms after the Kota Alam Shah MP M. Manoharan, who is in detention under the Internal Security Act, said he might want to resign.

His message was conveyed through his wife, but he will only decide after meeting his Democratic Action Party’s top leadership mid May.

It could be a cry for help from his wife who is managing his political work, or to put pressure on the government to release him from detention. He was among the five Hindu Rights Action Force leaders who were arrested for leading thousands of Indians onto the streets to demand help for their community.

Two have since been released.

Or it could, as some analysts speculate, be Mr Anwar’s strategy to keep creating by-elections to distract the Barisan Nasional, and to keep up the momentum of a winning opposition streak.

Conspiracy theory? The country is full of them.

Analyst Prof Mustafa Ishak from the International Islamic University was quoted by The Star newspaper as saying that he believed that four or five more by-elections have been lined up by Mr Anwar.

“Anwar has decided on the by-elections. He has decided where these should be held, his battle plans and the effects of the by-elections,” he said.

That could be stretching it. A by-election takes a heavy toll on any political party’s coffers, and its energy reserves. And it’s a rather transparent strategy, if at all it is one.

Still, the spate of resignations timed one after another is taxing.

The BN may turn the tables on the opposition this time by refusing to contest in the Penanti by-election on May 31st.

An independent-minded opposition MP from Penang, Mr Jeff Ooi, remarked that although he personally wanted to help crush UMNO, he realised that people were tiring of by-elections.

He noted in an entry in his blog that none of the outcomes of the by-elections could change the political representation at the national level.

“By-elections are justified if God so decides to recall any of the elected YBs to his side. But by-elections cannot be justified if they were to be manipulated to fulfill non-taxpayers’ agenda of finding solutions to intra-party problems.

“Unjustifiable by-elections are a betrayal to voters and akin to raping democracy and the democratic process and I deplore that,” he wrote.

Many will agree.