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November 23, 2009 Monday

ST Breaking News | Blogs | On The Money
Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
Geithner's gamble
March 24, 2009 Tuesday, 03:45 PM
Goh Eng Yeow on the latest US plan to manage toxic bank assets.

I SUPPOSE some action is better than the lack of direction which seemed to have characterised the US government recently.

US Treasury Tim Geithner’s latest plan to take toxic assets off the hands of troubled US banks seems to have set global financial markets on fire.

After a slow start, the benchmark Straits Times Index is now comfortably above the 1,700 level for the first time in six weeks, after gaining 2.8 per cent.

I am not too sure why markets should be so exuberant over the plan. It has to be approved by the US Congress which may yet derail it if there is a big outcry from an indignant US public.

To explain in layman’s language, the plan goes like this: There is a bank which has $100 million worth of doubtful debts. If it cannot make good this sum of money, it will have to close shop.

It asks the government for help.

Instead of handling the problem all by itself, the government wants to set up a 50-50 joint venture with a private investor in which each party would take $5 million of the doubtful debt.

The JV then goes to a government agency (the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) to borrow the remaining $90 million.

The bank gets its $100 million back while the JV becomes the owner of the doubtful debt.

But here is the catch: If the doubtful debt cannot turn “good” and turns bad, with the borrower refusing to pay a single cent at all, all the JV will lose is the $10 million. It will not have to repay the $90 million loan it owes the FDIC.

It is a “heads you win tails I lose” situation for the pension funds and insurance firms if they come up with the small outlay to participate in Tim Geithner’s programme.

Most borrowers would love to be in such a situation – you get to keep the money you make, but the bank takes the bulk of any losses you may incur.

But doesn’t it remind you of the mess which caused the the world to plunge into this credit crunch crisis in the first place?

In the United States, banks were lending large sums of money to people to buy houses which they could not afford in the first place.

When these people could no longer service the loans, they simply went to the bank, left it with the keys to their houses and walked away.

There was no legal way – at least in the US – to make them repay their loans.

The rest of the world have been paying for this oversight eversince - as a staggering US$30 trillion in asset value was wiped out last year alone due to this mishap.



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Total comments: 11
sharlynrj
April 03, 2009 Friday

If you really really wanted to know why.....then this is very interesting.

John Smith started the day early having set his alarm clock
(MADE IN JAPAN ) for 6 am.
While his coffeepot
(MADE IN CHINA)
was perking, he shaved with his
electric razor
(MADE IN HONG KONG)
He put on a
dress shirt
(MADE IN SRI LANKA),

designer jeans
(MADE IN SINGAPORE )
and
tennis shoes
(MADE IN KOREA)
After cooking his breakfast in his new
electric skillet
(MADE IN INDIA )
he sat down with his
calculator
(MADE IN MEXICO )
to see how much he could spend today. After setting his
watch
(MADE IN TAIWAN )
to the radio
(MADE IN INDIA )
he got in his car
(MADE IN GERMANY )
filled it with GAS
(from Saudi Arabia )
and continued his search
for a good paying AMERICAN JOB.
At the end of yet another discouraging
and fruitless day
checking his
Computer
(made in MALAYSIA ),
John decided to relax for a while.
He put on his sandals
(MADE IN BRAZIL),
poured himself a glass of
wine
(MADE IN FRANCE)
and turned on his
TV
(MADE IN INDONESIA),
and then wondered why he can't
find a good paying job
in AMERICA

AND NOW HE'S HOPING HE CAN GET HELP FROM A PRESIDENT MADE IN KENYA




comment 3584 | Offensive? Report this comment
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader
March 27, 2009 Friday

There is an easier, cheaper, and faster way to solve the banking crisis which no one is talking about on Capitol Hill. If collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are the problem, just get rid of them! Desecuritize them! Just convert them back into the underlying loans. There are $1.4 trillion in CDO’s outstanding backed by Alt-A and subprime loans in the form of 3,700 individual securitizations of perhaps 3.7 million loans. Over 68% of the loans backing these bonds are current. Mark to market rules are forcing the banks to carry this paper on their balance sheets at 50%-80% discounts. The problem is that mark to market is a meaningless accounting fiction when there is no market. If you break up these securities and place the underlying loans back on the banks’ balance sheets, the good mortgages can be valued at 100% of face, and those behind in their payments or in default can be discounted to maybe 70% because they are still secured by the value of the homes. This would boost the value of the entire asset class from the current 20-50 cents up to 90 cents on the dollar. Restored balance sheets would enable banks to resume lending. Of course it would be a massive admin job unwinding the rats’ nests behind some of these securities, but Heaven knows there is abundant subprime and Alt-A expertise available for hire these days. Just sift through the ashes of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. It is a workable plan, and therefore is unlikely to ever see the light of day. www.madhedgefundtrader.com.


comment 3461 | Offensive? Report this comment
Eric
March 26, 2009 Thursday

If there is such thing as the proverbial '3 strikes and you are out', Geitner is cretainly inching towards the door. First strike as when he ws vague on his bank stimulus plan which sent the DOW plunging. Second strike - yesterday he made a big boo-boo in supporting China's reserve currency suggestion which send the dollar down. If you include his Senate Committee demeanour when he was told off by the chairman, was that the third strike? Maybe no but he us certainly inching himself out of the job.

comment 3425 | Offensive? Report this comment
sharlynrj
March 26, 2009 Thursday

That's the problem, Michael. Its a gamble.
And the US has been gambling too long.
Wishing that whats his name.... is going to pull it off is much like wishing that if you chuck a lump of sugar into the water of the Barrage, it will become sweeter. No, it wont.

comment 3421 | Offensive? Report this comment
michael
March 25, 2009 Wednesday

What else or what other better way can the US govt take to tackle this problem if what Giethner proposed is objected to. Surely President Obama is smart enough to know the talent of Giethner and also to know if this is gong to be a so called gamble, a bad one that is.

comment 3398 | Offensive? Report this comment

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