IN TOKYO

IT IS probably much easier to predict whether it is going to be rain or shine than when the sakura (cherry blossom) tree at the neighbourhood park begins to bloom each year.

But that doesn’t deter Japan’s two major sakura forecasters – the government Meteorological Agency and the private-sector Weathernews weather forecasting company – from trying.

As they each employ slightly different approaches to telling when the blooms will arrive, all eyes this year are on which method is better – the fully automated method of the Met Agency or the labour-intensive one employed by Weathernews.

Here’s how each of them works.

To cut manpower costs, the Met Agency has automated all its weather data collection centres throughout the country. Meteorological and sakura flowering data for the past 30 years are fed into a computer, which coughs out the results. The Met Agency boasts that its approach requires no human involvement!

Weathernews not only uses historical weather and flowering data but also relies on some 10,000 human monitors throughout the length and breadth of Japan to send in information about the state of the buds on sakura trees in their neighbourhoods.

According to the latest predictions, the Met Agency says the sakura will start blooming in Tokyo on March 24th, whereas Weathernews says it will be March 25th - a difference of one day.

For Osaka, it’s March 27th according to the Met Agency, but March 28th according to Weathernews.

In their previous forecasts announced in early March, the two parties had differed by as much as six days in the case of Osaka!

The average Japanese wants to know when the sakura will bloom so that they can plan trips around the country to the best places to view the blossoms - such as Yoshino in Nara prefecture - or to schedule hanami (flower-viewing) parties with friends and colleagues in the neighbourhood park.

But as to be expected, Nature has a mind of its own.

Sakura trees more or less know they should bloom in spring, but the actual date varies greatly between trees. I used to have a small sakura tree outside my window that blooms in early March!

As a result, the sakura trees in Tokyo are invariably already in various degrees of blooming by the time the Met Agency declares that the sakura is finally here!

Sakura trees more or less know they should bloom in spring, but the actual date varies greatly between trees.  I used to have a small sakura tree outside my window that blooms in early March!

As a result, the sakura trees in Tokyo are invariably already in various degrees of blooming by the time the Met Agency declares that the sakura is finally here!

The time and energy expended annually on sakura forecasting do not go unappreciated for cherry blossoms mean a great deal to the Japanese.

Spring marks important milestones in the life of every Japanese. For young people, it is the graduation season as well as the start of a new academic year at school or university.

Spring is also the season when new college graduates start their first jobs, which for many also means having to live away from home for the first time in their lives.

Spring is also a time when one makes new friends and bids farewell to the old.

For Japanese in their late 50s, spring is the season when they retire from their companies and start a “second life”. 

In all these different situations, the sakura is invariably a part of the scenery as the flowers bloom in great profusion throughout the land – except in the northern parts of Japan whether they arrive only several weeks later.

The word “sakura” and the image of the pale pink blossoms therefore never fail to trigger a deep sense of nostalgia in the Japanese people.

Many of them harbour particularly vivid memories of the sakura trees in their school playgrounds.

Unfortunately, the cherry blossom season does not last long. The blooms disappear after a mere 7 to 10 days.

Surprisingly, despite the annual fuss over the arrival of the sakura, most Japanese – according to a survey by Weathernews - prefer the sight of cherry blossom petals falling to the ground – which resembles a mini snowstorm when viewed from a distance – than the sight of the flowers in full bloom.

The sense of melancholy that sets in when the cherry blossoms shrivel and drop off seems to suit the Japanese psyche far better than the feelings of light-heartedness and hope that the full blooms bring.

For me, the sakura holds a special meaning as they usually bloom around the time of my birthday.  

Believe me, there is no better birthday present.