THE race for the presidency may be over a year away, but the coming elections are already firmly in the spotlight in the Philippines.
If the mid-2010 polls were held now, according to a survey this week by pollsters Pulse Asia, it would be too close to call between four likely candidates: the vice-president, two senators and a former president thrown out of office for corruption.
Let me introduce them:
Vice-president Noli de Castro is the front-runner with 19 per cent of the poll's votes. The former TV presenter, who does a popular weekly radio show, has so far not said whether he plans to run. He has kept a low profile during President Gloria Arroyo's turbulent leadership.
Just behind him with 17 per cent of the vote is a young senator: Francis "Chiz" Escudero. His supporters are pushing him as a mould-breaking Filipino version of US President Barack Obama. Mr Escudero will only qualify to run for the presisdency when he turns 40 later this year. He was the most popular of the four in vote-rich Metro Manila.
Former president Joseph Estrada, convicted of plunder and pardoned by Mrs Arroyo last year, got 16 per cent of the vote. When the former movie star and vice-president ran in 1998, he got 30 per cent; the biggest majority of any Philippine president, thanks to poor voters. He is still popular among the poor.
Mr Estrada has vowed to run if the opposition doesn't unify itself behind a single candidate. But some analysts say he isn't eligible to do so under the Constituirtion.
Senator Manuel "Manny" Villar, a self-made property tycoon born on the wrong side of the tracks, got 15 per cent of the poll's votes. He's a big hit with overseas contract workers and their families back home for repatriating Filipinos in distress abroad.
Senator Loren Legarda, another former TV personality, is the only women among the "presidentiables", as they are called. She got 12 per cent. Voters may be reluctant to elect a women on the heels of Mrs Arroyo's unpopular presidency, say some commentators.
Several likely candidates failed to make double-digits in the poll. I'll mention one: Senator Manuel "Mar" Roxas, a 50-year-old political blue-blood, is expected to throw his hat in the ring after - so the gossip goes - he proposes to his girlfriend, a glamorous TV newsreader.
Having a show-biz spouse can be a big plus at the polls, though to be fair to Mr Roxas, he is a capable and respected lawmaker. He got 8 per cent of the vote.
Preparations are already underway for the first automated elections for the country's 40 million voters. They are ferverently hoping that this will help eliminate electoral fraud.
The poll vividly reflects the widely held view here that 2010's election will be tight race among the main personalities. So far, only Mr Villar has clearly stated his intention to run. The deadline to do so is Nov 30.
The size of campaign war chests often plays a prominent role in deciding the outcome of this country's invariably rollicking elections; not just for the presidency, but also for congressional and local-government posts.
The Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, a think-tank, estimates that it can cost up to 5 billion pesos (S$158 million) to run a campaign for the presidency; up to 100 million pesos for a seat in Congress and about the same for the governor of a large province.
Political parties are built around candidates not ideaology here. And the distinctions between administration and opposition get blurred come election time, with candidates often switching sides if it can get them elected.
Jobs and tackling corruption are shaping up to be the main 2010 election isssues.
In the bare-knuckled world of Philippine politics, foes and rivals will be falling over themselves to dish the dirt on each other. Actually, it's already started.
Going by the circles where politics is debated, Mr Villar's chances of becoming the next president are rated highly as things stand. He is touting his experience and undeniable success as businessman.
Being enormously rich helps, of course.