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November 23, 2009 Monday

ST Breaking News | Blogs | On The Money, ST's Home Ground
Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
The 'buy and hold' strategy
February 25, 2009 Wednesday, 03:25 PM
Goh Eng Yeow on the wisdom of having your money professionally managed.

LIFE goes on as usual for fund managers even though the sky seems to be crashing down around them, as assets of all classes plunge in value.

Last night, they gathered at a posh hotel to celebrate the achievements of their peers and dished out awards to the outstanding performers.

But as my colleague, Gabriel Chen, pointed out in his article this morning, about $1.5 billion has walked out of Singapore unit trusts in the fourth quarter alone.

Indeed, these investors who have made their exit, might have been the smart ones. Stock prices have fallen further since the start of the year and there does not seem to be an end to the stock market carnage in sight.

For the "experts", it has been a trying time, even though some have put on a brave front, waxing lyrical about the need to stay invested.

But investors, who parked their money in unit trusts have discovered that they are doing as badly, if not worse, than those who choose to have fun making investments with their own money.

The super-rich, who get the dubious privilege of parking their money with hedge funds which supposedly have the inside track to even greater wealth, fare even worse. In some cases, they have lost the family silver, after placing their money with fraudsters like Bernie Madoff.

The cynical view is that it is impossible to beat fund managers at their own game. After all, they will continue to enjoy earning their keep, so long as investors are willing to park their nest-eggs with them.

But such cynicism aside, it is pertinent to ask why so few fund managers were able to forecast the current financial crisis and take steps to protect their investors’ interests, even though they were supposed to be spending much of their time looking at the market.

Indeed, many investors are now asking themselves if it is sensible for them to stick to the "Buy and Hold" strategy advocated by fund managers. Over the years, the mantra has been to behave like a sensible long-term investor - rather than a day-trader – because stocks outperform bonds and other assets if they are held long enough.

But as economist John Maynard Keynes once observed: In the long-term we will all be dead.

Anyone who followed the buy and hold advice given out by the fund managers will feel deceived.

Wall Street has fallen to an 11 year-low, wiping out any gains made in the past decade, while stock prices here have fallen to 2003 Sars crisis lows.

Since the global credit crisis erupted over a year ago, fund managers haven’t adjusted their portfolios from stock holdings to cash fast enough. Some of them have been buried by the avalanche of plunging stock prices.

For many investors, the best strategy is to hold on tight to your cash right now, after the vast destruction of wealth last year.

The biggest tragedy is to have to try to slowly accumulate your nesteggs once again, just when a huge financial storm is in full swing.



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Total comments: 12
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader
March 09, 2009 Monday

We’re going to 6,000 in the Dow, then maybe 4,000. So argues Louise Yamada, one of the most respected long term technical analysts on Wall Street. The targets for the S&P 500 are 600 and 400. Let me reprint a comment I made on January 27, when the Dow was at 8,250, some 1,500 points, or 22% higher. “There is a hulking great 800 pound gorilla sitting on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange right now. Past stock market crashes in the thirties and the seventies produced market price earnings multiples of seven. Today it is 11. Does this mean that the Dow has one last 40% down leg left in it before we bottom out? That would take us to a 5,500 Dow, or a 570 S&P 500. Maybe the old PE benchmarks have been rendered meaningless by zero interest rates. Maybe so many single digit stock prices and trough earnings are skewing the numbers. Or, maybe nothing makes any difference anymore, and everything is just driven by the sentiments of attention deprived traders on steroids. But if I am right, look for a few more weeks of Obamaphoria supported stock prices, followed by a long, frightening plunge in the down elevator.” Looks like investors found the gorilla.
http://blog.madhedgefundtrader.com/

comment 2973 | Offensive? Report this comment
Never invested
March 03, 2009 Tuesday

I have friends. Never knew a thing about finance, until they became FAs of cos. Have always been wrong about the markets during dinner. All top sales at the banks/agencies. Using their little advantage against the ignorant. Nice cars nice houses. In this downturn, they continue to enjoy life, with me of cos...

All they have to do is pretend to tell you that everything is under control, invest for the long term etc... And go to the next sucker and say it's time... Prices are low. When others are fearful, you must be greedy. Buffet style(Wrong application of the investment guru). Buy funds(So that he can have sushi buffet with me tonight).

What a career...

comment 2874 | Offensive? Report this comment
ionfox
March 03, 2009 Tuesday

If Keynes is right... That in the long term we will all be dead... Then it would be bad for Temasek, GIC and Singapore...

Nevertheless, there may be some truth in it... My CPF investment being forced guided by CPF policy of capital control into "trustee" (BS) stocks had been holding for 8-9 years and burning out 90%... Let's see until another 10-11 years and see what the govt would say for a 20-years long investment return cycle. I hope Keynes is wrong.

comment 2864 | Offensive? Report this comment
mm mm
March 03, 2009 Tuesday

Realist? you are probably an insurance agent, but not a realist. Cos the truth should not hurt, but you are agitated. I am just saying that fat company that is bleeding so bad now...hope they go bust tomorrow!

When there was 90K profits to be made, they make all sorts of road blocks, and say things like long term investment plans...as if I needed to follow all their plans. They say the agent will land in serious trouble if I cash out all my 14 investment plan policies. That was the thrust of my complaint.

I have taken responsibility for everything, of course, by cashing out at a loss. There are a few others here who also think those fat cats have had their day already.

comment 2863 | Offensive? Report this comment
Realist
March 01, 2009 Sunday

mm mm, its amusing how you insinuate that its the fault of your financial adviser that you had lost money in the stock market. When you were making 90k worth of profits, I suppose you had plenty of nice things to say about them. Only when the market goes against you then you see fit to put the blame on someone else.

Why not blame yourself? No one put a gun to your head and told you to invest through them. The signs of one of the biggest financial collapses could have been seen, only if you had taken the time to see it. If your one and only rudimentary method of growing money is through getting fund managers to invest for you, and buying and holding for the LONG-TERM, then you have no one to blame but yours truly.

And of course they make money from keeping you as a customer as long as they can. Don't be naive. Only a fool doesn't learn from their mistakes and on top of that, blames other people for it.

comment 2826 | Offensive? Report this comment

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