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Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
Shrivelling green shoots of recovery
February 17, 2009 Tuesday, 03:28 PM
Goh Eng Yeow on the renewed turmoil afflicting regional lenders.
I FEEL a bit like the guy in Benjamin Button film who got struck by lightning seven times and lived to tell the tale. Like many investors, I am hoping to find green shoots of recovery, as foreign money trickles back into funds investing in Asian equities. I even had an article published this morning which had a table to give a breakdown of the inflow of funds into the various markets. But the regional stock market rout this morning proves that this may yet be another false dawn luring investors to their doom, if they had not already been damned by previous bear traps. So what ails the regional markets, or rather, regional banks which were hard hit by the selldown this morning? Leading regional lenders sharply lower is HSBC Holdings which fell at one point by more than 2 per cent to HK$57.60 – or just above its recent lows of HK$55. What spooks the Asian bellwether is the accelerating rot in the UK lending market where rival Lloyds Banking Group had the dubious honour in competing with Royal Bank of Scotland for record losses after warning that another lender, HBOS, which it took over on January 19, had suffered a £10bn loss in 2008. Also spooking sentiment was an update by Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Helsby that HSBC would need US$20 billion to US$35 billion to shore up its capital base. By his reckoning, the bank had to inject US$10 billion into its various units last year, leaving an impaired capital cushion at the bank’s capital structure. The strength of the US currency – even as the Obama administration fumbles in its attempts to convince investors that it has the correct fix for the ailing US economy – is also causing turmoil in Asian currency markets today. As Hong Kong’s de facto central bank, HSBC has always enjoyed top-notch ratings. Will it suffer from a further erosion of investors' confidence if the Hong Kong dollar peg to the US currency is clouded once again by uncertainties? Currency market turmoil is also creating havoc for South Korean banks, as the Korean won plunges by 4.7 per cent in one week. South Korean lenders had one of their numbers – Woori Bank – to thank for their woes. Last week, Woori apparently shook Asian credits markets to their core, after failing to honour what was supposed to be a gentleman’s agreement to buy back US$400 million worth of sub-ordinated bonds which it issued five years ago. Although Woori is merely following lenders such as Deutsche Bank in refusing to retire cheap fundings, it doesn’t sit down well with investors who fear that Asian lenders are catching the contagion which is afflicting beleaguered global lenders. Amidst all these commotion, Singapore’s largest lender, DBS Group Holdings must surely be thanking its lucky stars that it chose to release its fourth quarter results last Friday at what now turned out to be a lull in the continuing financial storm. In contrast to the woes facing other regional lenders, the declines experienced by Singapore banks seem almost trifling by comparison. As I write, DBS and United Overseas Bank have fallen by eight cents each to $8.12 and $11.00, while OCBC is down seven cents at $4.93. Tags: economy, stocks
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In all due fairness, it is easy to put the blame on LKY and his family. Let’s not forget when LKY take over, our country reserve was only at 100 Million compared to now, which is thousand times more over 44 years. If you are a venture capitalist or an entrepreneur, you would understand that’s a tremendous feat that few can achieve!
Yes, no govt policy is perfect and personally, I am also a victim of some of its policies derived from the "elitist" mindset whereby quite a substantial part of my retirement fund in CPF had virtually been wiped out.
I would suggest that Nasa Singapore focus on advocating institutional and policy changes instead of personal attacks on the Lee’s family. At such unusual times, most including top experts like Warren Buffett made mistakes. Despite mistakes made, overall we still owe it to LKY and his team for what we are today. Else it would be unimaginable to see how we going to face this crisis, unprecedented since our independence, if not since the Great Depression in 1930s
Nevertheless, the present crisis further unveils the shortfall and weakness of our institutions and long-held assumptions. My concern is: What have we learnt from it? And what is in next to strengthen ourselves for the future… Other than the tactical response to the crisis, I have not seen any fundamental changes in the institutional process yet. There is little challenge and debate by the President and his advisory councils on Govt initiated Stimulus Plan. Is the Stimulus Plan so perfect that there isn’t any single flaw, especially when it was drawn out in such short period of time in respond to the crisis? Financial budget figures are not even updated for parliamentary debate until singled out by one of the opposition MP. The parliament has lack its bite to check on the government, making the ministers and govt bureaucracy job easier.
Maybe be the govt and leaders should be more thick-skinned to accept challenge and open debate. I am not expecting the ruling party to encourage a credible, constructive opposition, but at least for the sake of the country, with the upper hand on their side, they should not discourage it either with changes on the election rules.
When this Crisis dies down, I hope to see more liberalisation in our political scene such as the demolishment of GRC fortress to single constituency electorate ward to permit better democratic participation. With a better-educated and more globally-informed electorate, it is time for such change to empower the people than having them rely on a paternalistic government. This would also to give the Parliament the bite to check on our government policy and its implementation which has been more positively PR-orientated and resulted in increasing cynicism from the public.
Singapore political development is like reaching its puberty stage, with a more defiance citizens or rude rebellious teenagers as can be witness over the internet. Soon the people will grow up and be adults. I hope in my life time, I would be able to see it reaches the institutional maturity akin to the US political and civil values and ideals as witness in the Obama era.
Singapore State Controlled Media which includes this Stonline and straits times print and media papers have blacken out yesterday's news on worst GIC loss of more than SGD$50 Billion and GIC in the red. Simply tells what the government does not want to share with the public but the Straits Times media playing yes man to public important news blackout is shameful and proves GIC chariman and despot Lee Kuan Yew and family controlling Singapore Media.
With Temasek loss of more than 56 Billion dollars and GIC another 50 Billion , the lee family with Ho Ching have wiped out Singapore's reserves and got away scott free unscattered under the protection of the PAp government- not anwsering to anyone and above all laws. One wonder if any of our CPF is still left or completely wiped out.
This is shameful as is means about 9% of the 4.6 Billions they took of the reserves, they have lost 41% more via GIC.
If Yes Man President and Lee Kuan Yew family's "Mr ATM machine" appointed, President nathan by going against his own pay cheque of est SGD 1 Million means 12 Million only Vs 50 billion lost by Me Lee Kuan Yew's GIC and 56 Billion lost by his daughter in law Or maybe more (they actually never mention how much lost in Mardoff scandol-did they).
They should be fired and held accountable for like in the states where bank bosses are grilled and investigated. Not avoiding the rebuke-Shameful.
Lee Kuan Yew should be fired from GIC and his Mentor title stripped as he has only done well for himself and burnt our money. While Singaporeans are struggling, these despots are trying to build their own reserves and future political power at our expense and worst planning to call early elections to stay in power as next 2 years will be worst for them.