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US dollar carry trade

Goh Eng Yeow on the boost the weakening greenback gives regional equities.

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Published on November 16th, 2009
 

ASIAN markets are rallying as the greenback falls to fresh lows against regional currencies, giving the giant US dollar carry trade a fresh lease of life.

As I write, the US dollar has fallen to a record low against the Singdollar.

It is difficult to fathom why the greenback is so weak today, but it is the biggest reason for propelling regional stock indexes on a fresh upward trajectory.

This has sent the Hang Seng hurtling towards the 23,000 resistance level, while STI is up nearly 50 points at 2,777.

Some will say that the renewed weakness over the greenback is a reflection of falling US economic might.

One newspaper has described US President Barack Obama's nine-day trip to Asia as a visit to his creditors.

"Mr Obama can only grin and ask his hosts to bear with the weakening greenback. He does not have the means to rescue the US dollar on his own," it noted.

And for traders the world over, the most telling sign of US humility was the picture of the deep bow which Mr Obama made before the Japanese emperor in Tokyo.

It is also a sign of China's growing confidence that its president, Mr Hu Jintao, left Singapore after Mr Obama took off to Shanghai.

A far less assured leader would have cut short his Apec summit visit to Singapore and return back to Beijing early to make sure that nothing goes wrong with Mr Obama's first state-visit to his country.

This is why faith is being renewed among traders that they can safely "short" dollars and "long" emerging market equities, without having to fear that a sudden rebound of greenback will wipe them out.

In the short-term, a weakening green-back will give strength of the US dollar carry trade – and like the precedessor yen carry trade a decade ago – trigger a sharp rise in the value of all types of assets – stocks and shares, precious metals like gold, as well as crude oil.

But in the long-term, the trend of the weakening dollar is unhealthy, as it may prompt other major trading nations to try to devalue their currencies as well to try to stay competitive.

It reminds many of the Asian financial crisis a decade ago, when several nations indulged in what is known as "competitive devaluation" to protect their exports markets to keep up with the falling value of their neighbours’ currencies.

The end-result was near bankruptcy for them.

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