WATCHING the stock market the past few days and I am reminded of a man heaving a heavy sack, as he climbs up a hill. Each foot-fall becomes heavier as he climbs higher, as he turns wearier with every step.
Global stock markets have been flirting with 2009 highs, ever-since Wall Street's Dow Jones Industrial Average successfully breached the 10,000 level last Thursday.
But traders don't seem to be much cheered by the prospects of higher stock prices at all.
Instead, trading volumes around the world have been drying up, as buyers melt away as share prices climb higher.
What is supporting the global stock market rally is the increasingly shaky US dollar carry trade - with big-time punters borrowing heavily in US dollars to buy all sorts of assets from crude oil to emerging markets equities.
What they are betting is a further drop in the US dollar and a rise in the value of the assets they are buying. This will give them both forex gains and capital gains.
But as one economist points out, there is no chance of the US dollar falling to zero, even though the economic prospects of the US look awful. This explains why every drop in the greenback is viewed by traders with concern, as the prospect of a sudden rebound becomes more likely, wiping out those who are "shorting" the US dollar in a big way.
It seems strange to be placing a bet in the stock market when so much of the outcome hinges on the health of the ailing US dollar and almost nothing else matters – whether it is the underlying fundamentals of a blue-chip DBS Group Holdings share or the demand for crude oil going forward.
And just to give an example of the surreal situation which the market is finding itself trapped in, I got this note from a Hong Kong broker this morning.
It advised investors to buy HSBC Holdings up to a price of HK$91 on hopes that it would rise to HK$98. But if the stock should fall to HK$85, investors should take the loss in the chin and clear out of the stock altogether.
Strange, that such a trading recommendation should be made, considering that HSBC appears to be properly chastened by its US adventure and could not seem to be getting out of the troubled US mortgage market fast enough. On the flipside, it had even despatched its CEO to Hong Kong to show that it meant business in Asia.
Surely, if its share price falls sharply, isn't it more attractive to buy more of the stock?
But that is the ridiculous situation we are finding ourselves in the market today.
The buy high, sell low syndrome is back.