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November 23, 2009 Monday

ST Breaking News | Blogs | Life in Review, On The Money
Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
‘This is it’ for the markets?
October 29, 2009 Thursday, 03:29 PM
Goh Eng Yeow wonders if the recent stock indexes heights mark their high points.

I WAS among the one hundred-odd people who got to watch the Singapore premiere of the documentary which featured late singer Michael Jackson’s London comeback shows last night.

The film left viewers musing over what they had missed had Mr Jackson been alive to perform the show — the 3D imagery, pyrotechnics and elaborate stage sets — not to mention the incredible precision of his performance.

His various rehearsals were inter-weaved in the film and they flowed smoothly into the one performance reflecting what he proudly labelled as his "This is it" performance — the gold-plated standard which other performers will have to live up to.

But the strenuous rehearsals — the precisions in the choreography demanded by Mr Jackson of himself and his dancers – not to mention the marathon singing practices — would have exhausted a man half Mr Jackson’s age.

The effort in putting on the show was probably the major cause behind the death of the 50-year old singer, come to think of it.

Still, reflecting on the theme of his London come-back shows reminds me of the uncertain state of the stock market.

Is it "This is it" time for the Dow Jones after it breached the 10,000 level, the benchmark Straits Times Index crossed the 2,700 mark and the Hang Seng swung above the 22,000 level — all at about the same time?

At their respective current levels, the major stock indexes are half-way between their March lows and all-time highs — reached incidentally in late October 2007.

It is not surprising that after the recent losses on the Dow Jones, stock pundits believe that a 7 to 10 per cent correction in share prices is at hand. "This is it", they say. The indexes have reached their targets and bulls are looking tired. Time for the market to take a break and fall lower.

The jury is still out whether this is a correction before markets test fresh high levels next year, or a gentle descent back to lower levels to reflect the awful state of the "real" economy in developed countries such as United States and Europe where unemployment is still growing and consumption remains tepid.

The only parallel with current trading patterns is October 2007, when a massive dose of liquidity injected by the US central bank with an interest rate cut — plus a plan by China, now shelved, to allow its investors to buy shares directly from overseas — caused share prices to surge to record high levels.

Of course, this time around, the swing up has been much higher, since the Fed not only cut interest rates to almost zero in March, but also printed around US$3 trillion to provide a cushion of support for the global financial markets.

China has been helpful too, giving out a US$500 billion economic stimulus package and getting its banks to lend generously.

But getting the Fed to print even more money may be tough — with the Europeans and Japanese complaining loudly about the systematic devaluation of the US dollar and the implicit threat by China to swap out of its large US dollar hoard.

As for China, both the stock market and the real economy look like over-heating from the economic stimulus measures and the fear is that it might have to tighten up, just as the Fed is forced to stop its printing presses.

Regional bourses like Hong Kong and Singapore are caught in a pincer between Wall Street and Shanghai. So it is no wonder that they have tumbled on the sudden barrage of bad news that suddenly seem to become the norm once again.

No wonder, there are cynics who believe that investment bankers on Wall Street and in London are stubbornly clinging on to the eye-popping bonuses due to them, despite the big storm of protests this has generated in the Western media.

Given all the fresh uncertainties, there might not be any huge bonuses to collect any more next year. After all, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush; and paraphrasing Mr Jackson, they might say "This is it."



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Total comments: 1
helplessinsingapore
November 13, 2009 Friday

Wonder what this "market " fellow makes of this!!
We aint talking vegetables and fish, here.
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on the SD site.
==============
YOU WONT READ THIS IN THE STAITS..oops.. we mean..THE STRAITS TIMES

>From the NY Times.
Loss at Singapore Air Is More Bad News for Temasek


YOU WONT READ THIS IN THE STAITS..oops.. we mean..THE STRAITS TIMES

>From the NY Times.
Loss at Singapore Air Is More Bad News for Temasek

Temasek Holdings, which in September posted a record 67 percent drop in net profit for the year ended March 31, is still getting bad news from its investments.

Singapore Airlines, which is majority owned by the sovereign wealth fund, reported a worse-than-expected quarterly loss as the global economic slowdown affected profit margins, but said the outlook had improved.

The airline, which warned in July that it might post a full-year loss if tough conditions persisted, had a net loss of 159 million Singaporean dollars, or $114.6 million, for the three months through September, compared with a net profit of 324 million Singaporean dollars a year earlier.

Five analysts polled by Reuters had expected an average net loss of 38 million Singaporean dollars. The loss was narrower than the 307 million Singaporean dollars recorded in the previous three-month period.

“Advance bookings indicate that demand for air travel has stopped declining and is gradually recovering,” Singapore Airlines said in a statement.

The carrier has seen falling passenger and cargo demand this year as the global economic downturn has reduced business and leisure travel, leading the airline to reduce capacity by 11 percent in the 12 months from April. The airline also cut staff salaries and working hours.

Analysts said the growing presence of budget airlines in the region was making life tougher for premium carriers like Singapore Airlines and Japan Airlines. Budget carriers like AirAsia of Malaysia and JetStar of Australia are on an aggressive expansion drive despite the economic downturn.

JAL is undergoing a restructuring and negotiating for further government support after accumulating billions of dollars in losses, while Singapore Airlines has been forced to delay deliveries of eight airplanes from Airbus by 6 to 12 months

The report comes amid tough times for Temasek, which owns 55 percent of the airline. The wealth fund reported a record 67 percent drop in net profit for the year ended March 31, as a collapse in credit markets drove down the value of its stakes including holdings in Bank of America and Barclays.

The fund is trying to get its house in order after a tumultuous year, suffering not only from its bad bets on Western banks, but also a failed experiment to get a prominent outsider as its chief executive.

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