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STI’s rocket-like ascent

Goh Eng Yeow comments on the regional market's exuberance.

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Published on July 28th, 2009
 

THE benchmark Straits Times Index has shot up like a rocket in the past three week.

In the past hour, it has surged past the 2,600 level – its highest intra-day level since Sept 10 last year.

This means that in the past fortnight, STI had breached first the 2,400, then the 2,500 and now the 2,600 level — giving it an average gain of 100 points every week.

In doing so, it was basically retracing the steps it had taken during its retreat last September when it fell by about 100 points weekly.

Much has been written about the sustainability of this rally, since major stock markets went on the roll, after investment bank Goldman Sachs blew the breath away with its record quarterly profit of US$3.44 billion (S$4.94 billion) three weeks ago.

It is interesting that the two counters responsible for STI's charge today are DBS Group Holdings and CapitaLand.

These are respectively the largest financial group and largest property developer by market value which are listed on the Singapore Exchange and a reflection that investors are going for the biggest listed firms in Singapore.

What is driving the rally is a deluge of liquidity pouring into the region on hopes that the economies would experience a V-shaped recovery.

But the ride up has been both scary and exhilarating. Will it last?

The nearest equivalent to the current rally was the sharp rebound experienced after the August 2007 crash when regional markets went on a similar V-shaped trajectory on hopes that China would allow its citizens to directly invest in stocks overseas.

That rally lasted about one and a half months, before running out of steam.

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