In Bangkok
THERE is a strong possibility, says a source, that Thai prime minister Samak Sundaravej might dissolve the House today and call for a fresh election.
That would pull the rug at least for a while, from beneath the feet of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which has roiled the political landscape with protests and a call for him to quit in recent weeks.
Opposition Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva will also have little grounds to object; two weekends ago in the special emergency joint session, he had recommended new elections after all.
The decision anticipates an adverse verdict in a court case against Samak, which is due at 2pm Thai time today. Such a verdict will put Samak in a spot.
There is one school of thought in the ruling People Power Party (PPP), that if the verdict is a guilty one Samak can simply resign and be voted back into the premiership by Parliament.
But an election would outflank the PAD, and the ruling PPP and its allies are quite likely to win again. Many in the PPP say dissolution is inevitable anyway. However a dissolution would also need a proclamation by the King.
One key factor: The Budget has been passed by the House and now must be passed by the Senate which will remain unaffected by the dissolution.
Samak talked through a written ASEAN Lecture on Monday afternoon at Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, looking stiff and clearly struggling to read from the teleprompter.
Then with an evident sigh of relief he said ''That was the speech they prepared for me'' and, much more relaxed, launched into an off-the-cuff discussion, mostly about Myanmar and his visit there some months ago.
The thrust of the message was that he has been busy building a relationship with the junta's top leadership, without labouring the point of the continued detention of opposition leader and Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.
Among other things he promised that as ASEAN chair, he will try and persuade Myanmar's military regime to allow UN observers at the 2010 election in that country.
There was a good collection of Ambassadors and other senior foreign diplomats in the gathering, most probably - like me - come to see Mr Samak at a time when his days or even hours in office could well be numbered.
But outside where some Thai musicians were performing traditional music, he suddenly grabbed a wireless microphone and while the invitees were sipping their drinks and nibbling snacks, he gave an impromptu briefing on the origins and structure of Thai traditional music - and ordered the musicians to play three different rhythms to which he sang three different corresponding lyric sections.
The crowd loved it, and gave him a big hand as he left for a future that however confident and relaxed he seems, looks uncertain.



