In Jakarta
INCUMBENT President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, popularly known as SBY, will probably have to rely on informed voters to get himself re-elected next year.
He will need voters who understand why the government had to significantly raise fuel prices twice in the past three years. Crude oil prices, which shot up to unprecedented levels threatened to put Indonesia's budget in jeopardy, and spiralling fuel prices were pushing up fuel subsidies beyond the state budget.
SBY's administration had no choice but to slash these subsidies, allowing the fuel prices - which had been capped for more than 30 years in Indonesia at levels so affordable to many - to more than double in 2005, and raised again by 30 per cent in May. Unfortunately, quite a number of the 160 million expected to show up at ballot boxes next year didn't get it. They say the fuel price increases were SBY's fault.
A fisherman and his family who live on a boat just off North Jakarta, for example, care only about diesel prices which keep rising, while money from his catches couldn't seem to ever keep up. This man is clueless about what is happening in the international oil market. He wouldn't even know that there is an Iraq war, or that China and India are building factories like never before.
He is not the only ignorant one. Indonesia's illiteracy rate is still about 6 per cent, or 10.1 million people. Consider these: the TV audience in Indonesia is about 70 per cent of the population. The largest newspaper has a circulation of well less than a million copies a day. Indonesia has a population of about 220 million.
As SBY battles unpopularity over earlier fuel price increases, being an incumbent with access to campaign funds could give him an edge. This will definitely make him stand out among other candidates. Successful campaigns - often times involving fund donations, food distribution, free music concerts - are decisive factors that can swing voters.
The presidential election is still 10 months away. Around the same time five years ago, people weren't satisfied with the slow progress of then president Megawati Soekarnoputri's administration.
Not long after that, SBY came out in his campaigns and made a clear, simple offer to Indonesian voters: "a change" People went for it. He won.
But if Indonesian voters want "a change" yet again in next year's elections, SBY might not find so many willing voters this time.