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Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
Taking the market's pulse
September 22, 2008 Monday, 05:20 PM
Goh Eng Yeow takes stock of the stock market.
I SPENT part of Friday night trying to determine if the Straits Times Index's 139 point gain that day was the biggest point advance in its 50-year history. It turned out to be the second biggest incidentally, but the trawl through the Bloomberg machine also threw up some interesting bits of information. On August 8 and November 29 last year, and again on September 8, the STI was up by over 100 points. To again find such wild gyrations, one has to go back a decade – November 3, 1997 and January 13, January 19, February 2 and June 3 in 1998 – to be precise. You get the drift of what I am conveying. The scale of the credit crunch crisis now confronting global financial markets is affecting our local bourse in very much the same way which the Asian financial crisis had done so 10 years ago. STI's biggest jump in history was 204.27 points. It occurred on February 2, 1998. What prompted STI to make such a jump that day could have been a jerk-up response to some emergency package which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was planning to give Indonesia which was among the worst affected countries in the region. Now a similar rescue package is being rushed by the US government over the weekend to stop the global financial system from seizing up, as a result of convulsions on Wall Street. While Asian markets had reacted with jubilation when the bailout was announced on Friday morning, the major regional indexes have almost come to a standstill today. STI fell 14.9 points while London, Paris and Frankfurt are stuck in a similar rut. It seems to be the markets’ way of telling investors: Take a pause. Evaluate what is going on carefully, before jumping headlong back into stocks again. Tags: stocks
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Finally the bull has decided it's had enough of the battering! Only last year, people were smiling all the way to the bank; now, they're reeling from heavy losses in shares, unit trusts and the like. Unsurprisingly, many have "returned" the fat profits they made during the last bull run.
Many investors have all but given up on the market for whatever price they got in, it would always seem to be a bottomless pit. Many were left holding on to stocks that were plummeting in value.
The decreasing trading volumes over the past couples of months tell us that people by and large were becoming increasingly despondent. Many stocks were trading at a fraction of their peak prices, yet there were few takers. With so many ifs and buts, it was easier to just wait and see.
All of us have learned the hard way what goes up unabated can also come back to earth with a bang - though some have yet to witness a vice versa.
While last year's bullish streak was financially thrilling, last week's furious rally was a great relief of sufferings in that it had stemmed investors' losses somewhat and stopped the mental torment. And has provided them a glimpse of a new upswing that hopefully will help them recover losses as well.
For now we can't help feeling all is well again. One thing is certain, though, and that's investors' risk appetite won't be as huge as before as the proverbial "once bitten, twice shy" hits home.