Ravi Velloor says Musharraf might just be losing his military support base.

AS THE world watches the evolving situation in Pakistan where President Pervez Musharraf is under the gun, there is a growing sense that it is only a matter of time before the all-important army tells its former chief that it is time to call it a day.

Army officers tend to develop deep loyalties for those above them in the chain of command. Indeed, that is the very essence of a disciplinary force.

In Pakistan, the current chief, Ashfaq Kayani, was handpicked for the job by Musharraf. The head of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence, Nadeem Taj, is related to the president. At the very least, it can be expected that the 65-year-old retired general will come to no harm, even if he steps down.

In an article published on February 20th from Islamabad, I described a key event that could foretell things to come. That anecdote is worth recalling because it continues to be relevant today.

Here's what I wrote:

DAYS before he imposed a state of emergency in November, President Pervez Musharraf called a meeting of his corps commanders to rally support for the move.

“For almost half a minute there was total silence around the table,” said a person who has talked to two of the officers present.

“Then, one loyal general spoke up: ‘Of course, sir!’ And the others nodded in agreement.

It will probably take a miracle before he can count on such a consensus now that his parliamentary supporters have conceded defeat in elections.

Mr Musharraf’s legitimacy to rule will be severely eroded, analysts said yesterday.

At worst, he could be out of a job.

Mr Musharraf’s November resignation as army chief after months of political turmoil robbed him of his main source of power, said Mr Hasan Askari, a political analyst at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington. “For him, the most crucial issue will be his political survival rather than fighting the war against terrorism.”

Mr Askari said Mr Musharraf will “find it difficult to work with the opposition that wants to undo most of the steps taken by him after the suspension of the Constitution in November” under the state of emergency.

The question is whether the President, a former army commando decorated for heroism in action against India, will accept the writing on the wall.

He may have no choice. The new chief of army staff Pervez Kiyani has indicated he wants the army to return to its strictly professional role.

Musharraf still has powers to fire parliament. But it is unlikely that he will do that, however desperate his political situation may be. The army knows only too well that the situation on the ground is very hostile to him.

Besides, there is so much turmoil in the Pakistani state today, particularly in the tribal regions bordering Afghanistan, that no right-thinking person would want to tune up the domestic temperature on another issue.

What that means, simply, is this: However loyal the generals, beyond a point, if they feel national security is truly imperilled by Musharraf's staying, they may yet tell their former boss to step aside.

This time, “Of course, sir” may take a lot longer in coming.

Losing his ground? Source: AP