Nirmal Ghosh takes stock of Bangkok's mood with Thaksin gone.

In Bangkok

IT IS a holiday today in Thailand for the Queen's birthday and for the first time in weeks it's fairly quiet where I am in Bangkok.

The mood in Bangkok is now in balance. Many have grown weary of politics and political protests that clog the streets. The anti-Thaksin, anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has said it will continue to hold its 24 hour sit-in near Government House together with its evening rallies.

There were loud cheers from the few thousand gathered at the site last night when PAD leaders spoke of Thaksin Shinawatra's flight to England. But now that Thaksin is not in the country, the question is whether the PAD can sustain the momentum.

There is in general, a mild sense of relief in Bangkok that the political tension has ratcheted down a notch with Thaksin's departure. But it is only a notch, and the rest of the month will determine the mood going forward.

August 18 - the day proposed amendments to the Constitution are to be tabled in Parliament - will be a bellwether. Most analysts see instability continuing.

It is not so much Thaksin the man, but the larger issue that he represented, which is at the heart of the current tension: Whether the Bangkok elite will continue to run the country with their own agenda, or whether Thailand will progress towards real representative democracy.

Thaksin's departure has not removed that larger issue which is further complicated by the problem of corruption.

For the men and women on the street, many of whom work hard to make a living, the larger issue has little immediate relevance. Still, most Bangkokians are concerned about the economy and the business climate, and the government needs to avoid any missteps at this critical juncture.