In New Delhi
THE just concluded elections to five Indian state assemblies have left political pundits, analysts and the media red-faced.
They were all unanimous before the elections that there was no way the ruling Congress party would win them, particularly in the backdrop of high inflation, looming economic problems and charges that the government is “soft on terrorism.” In fact, two states – Delhi and Rajasthan – went to the polls immediately after a group of armed terrorists launched a devastating attack on Mumbai, the country’s financial capital.
That attack left over 170 people, including foreigners, dead, over 300 injured and the nation traumatised.
The large turnout of voters in politically conscious national capital and Rajasthan was cited as evidence of their keenness to express though the ballot their unhappiness over the government’s handling of the menace of terrorism, particularly the Mumbai attack.
In the event, the Congress had the last laugh, although, senior party leaders admitted in private that even they were pleasantly surprised by the results.
The party won three of the five states that went to the polls and thus managed to reverse a string of defeats it had suffered since 2005.
While the Congress retained the prestigious Delhi for the third consecutive term and returned to power in Rajasthan and northeastern border state of Mizoram, the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had to be content with retaining the sprawling Madhya Pradesh and the Maoist-infested Chattisgarh states.
So, where does it all leave Indian politics as the country heads of parliamentary or national elections in the first half of 2009.
The media, which had almost unanimously written off the Congress, conceded that the party had done creditably well, given the background in which the elections were held.
“Congress Wins Semis 3-2,” said the main headline in The Times of India. “Congress sounds war cry, Wins 3 to BJP’s 2 in semi-finals,” read the banner in Hindustan Times.
Both parties have reasons for cheer as well as introspection ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections, which the Election Commission has said would be held in April-May.
For the Congress, the fact that it has retained Delhi for the third consecutive term under the charismatic Shiela Dikshit while wresting Rajasthan and Mizoram from the opposition is a matter to rejoice.
At the same time, the party’s inability to vote out the BJP government in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, largely attributed to in-fighting in the local party units, should be a matter of concern.
Party leaders acknowledge that they would have to put their own house in order before they could hope to return to power at the centre.
For the BJP, on the other hand, the failure to capture Delhi and the loss of power in Rajasthan is a manifestation of the deep faultlines among the leadership that has spread to the rank and files.
Among the most creditable victories is that of Delhi’s Shiela Dikshit, who became only the third Congress chief minister in the country’s history to win a third consecutive term.
“Winning Delhi is like winning India,” Congress general secretary M. Veerappa Moily exulted.
Such talk immediately triggered speculation whether Mrs. Dikshit is prime ministerial material or whether the impressive victory would become her petard and confine her for ever to state politics.
Like Mrs. Dikshit, Madhya Pradesh’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Chhattisgarh’s Raman Singh, who delivered their states to the BJP, made an important point, that incumbency need not be seen as a burden.
While the Congress and the BJP will sit and analyse their respective performances, there is one point on which they agree: People vote for those who deliver on their promises of development.
All three victorious chief ministers are seen as those who had delivered on this front.
And if that conclusion is drawn by all political parties, Indian politics would take a giant leap, from dividing the people on the basis of caste, religion and region to uniting them on a nation-building agenda.