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Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
The future will take care of itself
December 31, 2008 Wednesday, 10:21 AM
Goh Eng Yeow on the need to tackle flashpoints before they become crises.
THE Queen of England recently posed this question: Why did no one predict the credit crunch ? The response from the professor, who was attending to her, was so straightforward that it was obvious that the world would not be in such a big financial mess if people with the authority had simply asked the right question. "At every stage, someone was relying on somebody else and everyone thought they were doing the right thing," he said. It is a dilemma faced not only by great and powerful nations like the United States and Britain but right here in Singapore as well. Put simply, someone is assuming that someone else will be doing the right thing to ensure that we ride out the financial storm safely. And many people here are assuming that the Government has all the solutions to the problems at hand. Take the increasingly serious credit squeeze faced by small and medium sized firms for example. When I was gathering views to write a column on the subject two weeks ago, I was appalled by the type of reactions I was getting from the professionals like auditors and lawyers who must be aware of the financial trauma which their clients were facing. "The Government has a lot of feedback already, and they have so many scholars. They will know what to do," one accountant said when asked for his views. Surely, even a doctor must know what is wrong with his patient before he can diagnose the ailment and prescribe the correct medicine. But the $2.3 billion emergency life support extended by the Government does not seem to be getting through to the SME patients which needed it. In the three weeks since it was launched on Dec 1, loans applications from 30 companies worth $5 million were approved. In contrast, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson used up all the US$350 billion given to him by the US Congress to recapitalise troubled financial institutions in less than two months It is not that the SME patients had been exactly helpful in identifying the problem. It is extremely frustrating to talk to them. They don’t want to be identified and they don’t want to be quoted. They like to brag about their achievements but not their failings. They would talk about the tight general credit situation, the reluctance of banks to lend, and the problems faced by their friends in getting loans. In other words, anything to avoid cast the spotlight on the sort of problems which they were facing. In all, I wrote a commentary, a news analysis, a news story and a blog on the subject in the past two weeks. Given the importance which small and medium sized firms play in our economy, employing the bulk of our workforce and forming a large fraction of the counters listed on the Singapore Exchange, this is too serious a problem to ignore. It is good to learn that the Government will shoulder more of its share of insurance premiums for loans to try to get much-needed credit flowing to the business community. But more problems are likely to flare up in the dark months ahead. Let’s not assume that someone else will be doing something right to make sure that everybody ride out of the crisis safely together. For better or for worse, we are all in this financial quandary together, and we should take a more pro-active stance to tackle flashpoints before they snowball into a big crisis. It will not be an easy year ahead but there is no need to be despondent. As the old saying goes: Look after the present and the future will take care of itself. Happy New Year. Tags: economy, singapore
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The Financial World is facing a Credit revolution to wipe out greed and fraud in capitalism.
Capitalism needs an overhaul.
Let it be revolutionalised
??????
Getting a loan is tough enough.
Getting a loan that won't be recalled at the worst moment is even harder. If I can repay a loan at anytime, I would not need to take a loan in the first place.
Banks need to learn their own lines:
No risk, no gain.
Someone should invent a replacement for the banks; this person will become a new billionaire.
Warren Buffet had given the warning 2 years ago wrt credit swaps, and had termed it as the weapon of mass financial destruction.
Many lawmakers in the US had forseen the mortgage crisis and had pushed the red alert button describing it as largely unsustainable even in the face of the combined might of their financial institutions.
For nearly a decade we've seen Price to Equity ratios go to unimaginable levels.
We had it coming.
And what sustained these all at the end of the day is not exuberance but greed.
There are only 3 forces in the market - exuberance, greed and fear. And those that are in fear are incapable of doing anything BY THEMSELVES.
Even with the injection of government funds intended to help SMEs, banks are not legally bound to exactly do that.
If banks are not willing to do it, instead of giving them the funds directly, can't the MAS setup a temporary lending arm with the sole aim of lending to SMEs? Then allow leeway for banks to resell the product if they are interested. Then slowly dissolve the practice, and slowly transfer ownership of the products to banks, once the crisis is abeited?
This is unheard of in a free market economy given normal circumstances. But so do bailouts.
And these times are not exactly normal circusmtances.