Goh Eng Yeow examines the absence of markets’ reaction to the Madoff scandal.
IT has been exactly one week since Wall Street’s Bernard Madoff stunned the world with confession of his US$50 billion swindle.
Much has been written since then about the subject - how he abused the trust of the tightly-knit unsuspecting Jewish community in the United States which entrusted billions to him, and conned global banks like HSBC and BNP Paribas which had escaped relatively unscathed from the past 18 months’ financial meltdown.
What is surprising is the absence of reaction from the world’s financial markets to the latest scandal on Wall Street, as a traumatic year draws to a close.
Surely, a scandal of such a scale would cause a fresh round of market convulsions, as jittery investors demand their money back from hedge funds whose reputations have already taken a big battering from the astounding losses which they had incurred so far for their clients this year.
Some will recall that it was news of the US$40 billion redemptions from hedge funds in late October which caused a furious selldown in global financial markets. It had caused regional indexes such as STI to sink to its lowest levels in nearly five years.
But those, who hope that the Madoff scandal is now contained, may be disappointed.
There may simply be a selldown sometimes down the road. The question is simply “when”.
During the superbull run last year, hedge funds were responsible for pushing regional stock markets higher, as they poured billions into blue-chips and penny stocks alike in their overzealous pursuit for higher yields.
But the industry is rapidly contracting now, as chastened investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs cut the credit lines they provide to hedge funds.
Giant US hedge funds such as Citadel, which has about US$15 billion under management, are suspending redemptions after suffering big losses.
By some estimates, about US$400 billion had been locked up because of such suspensions. It is giving Wall Street and regional markets a much needed reprieve from another round of sell-down.
Each week, I check the fund flow data kindly provided by Citigroup very carefully.
True enough, there is hardly any fund movements in or out of huge liquid regional markets such as Singapore and Hong Kong.
Perversely, it is good news to find that foreign funds are inactive as Christmas approaches.
But so much bad news continue to pour out non-stop out of United States, Europe and now China.
It has many of us wondering how long all will stay quiet on the regional market front.
Tags:
finance,
stocks
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it is a natural phenomenal to expest . There is a silent before the storm comes. Hold on tight now. It is coming
The Americans care less about liquidity in pure sense, their American dream concept is just spend till your died. Let the world worry about the cash while we spent .
We have cause this credit bubble by blowing credit terms export to them and it burst on our faces Asians too. So next step is stop blowing anymor credit term in our dealings with Americans will save ourselves. Simplicity is best policy in business.
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...and they said China is a dangerous place.
No transparancy. Nothing but a bubble, Scrupulous businessmen. How they operate is just questionable!!!
It is simply ridiculous that so many companies in the US adopted such irresponsible culture of spend, spend and spend. Take the 3 giant car companies as an example, their executives flew in in private jets to beg for a bailout. When I worked in a US MNC I noticed they spend alot of money on air travel, hotels, training courses without any thoughts of keeping the costs low. Such an attitude brings about the situation they are facing now. Fundamentally, they have to change their concept of spending tomorrow's money today if they are serious about a any chance of recovering their financials and economy.
More scandals and frauds to come. Good luck to the American people and those who invest in US assets, shares, bonds etc. I pity China and the Chinese. They have
a huge stake of investments holdings in America. The Singapore government have to start be cautious and preservative in their US investment portfolio.
Good bless America again! I don't know for how long the rest of the World will be able to bail out a Country which is already "Broke" since the 90's.
PK Wong