By Goh Eng Yeow
Markets Correspondent
engyeow1@sph.com.sg

 

I USUALLY fill up my car's petrol tank at the same neighbourhood kiosk every week. 

Over the past year, I have been attended by the same guy – a mainland Chinese who originally came here to find work as a car mechanic, but ended up being hired as a petrol station attendant instead. 

He is not paid highly – around $1,000 a month – but he hopes to save enough to return back to China to be with his wife. 

Recently, he changed his plans. He hopes to stay here for a while more. At least, he has a job here, you see. He said that the situation has deteriorated so badly in China that he would be joining the millions of unemployed workers if he goes back there. 

Somehow, the rosy headline numbers which China has been churning at a furious pace over the past month doesn't meld with his cautionary tale of the woeful job market back home. 

True, there have been newspaper reports of riots in Guangzhou with workers going on the rampage, demanding for the many months of hard-earned wages they were owed, after their factories suddenly closed down.  

But while this would have been considered as a dire warning of the economic slowdown leading to social unrest elsewhere, some analysts have given  these negative reports the positive spin in China's report. It is sign of the country becoming more open in its news coverage of unsavory events. 

Many of them have also been complimentary of the mainland's efforts to keep its economy humming, despite a global credit crisis which threatens to derail big economies elsewhere. 

Even I bought into the China growth story. 

Two weeks ago, I reported that "China stocks are back", after observing that billions of dollars had been finding their way into Hong Kong to snap up shares of the giant mainland firms listed there, despite the never-ending convulsions on Wall Street. 

Every investor loves China, it appears. Unlike the United States and Europe, China seems to be getting its act right – like offering a four trillion yuan package to improve its infrastructure over the next two years and cutting interest rates by a steep 1 percentage point to prime its slowing economy.

But it may be tough to ignore the increasingly gloomy economic data. 

Last week's dreadful purchasing manager index data in China was a reflection of the deep contraction in the country's mighty manufacturing sector.

And the latest trade data shows that China exports fell in November for the first time in almost seven years. The figures were far below what analysts were predicting. 

Now the brakes have been slammed on China's growth, a ripple effect is being felt across the world: The Baltic Index, which tracks shipping charges for commodities, has fallen 94 per cent from its record high levels in May, as mainland imports of raw materials screech to a halt, while mining giant Rio Tinto - one of China's biggest iron ore suppliers - unveiled plans to slash 14,000 jobs. 

None of these bad news seem to have any impact on the exuberant Hong Kong market where the shares of giant mainland firms have been partying sine last week, like good times are back again. To a lesser extent, S-chips, the China plays listed here, have been rallying as well.  

And the story for the exuberance in Hong Kong and S-chips ?  

The grim trade data was waved off as unimportant, while an old story that China is about to allow its nationals to dabble in overseas equities - starting from Hong Kong - is given fresh credence.   

But the stark reality is that, like the rest of the world, mainland investors are quite likely to stay at home and invest sparingly in the stock market, while the global credit crunch lasts. 

Besides, the 60 per cent drop in stock prices in Shanghai makes China equities a lot cheaper now. There is no need for any mainland investor to rush out of China, once the floodgates are opened. 

How about the billions of dollars which has been flooding Hong Kong, despite all the problems which had been confronting Wall Street like the awful US job data and the collapse in Citigroup's share price?

Many of us had originally believed that it could have been due to the rosy picture depicted in China - the 4 trillion yuan infrastructural development package and the steps taken by Beijing to prop up the economy. 

But I have a nagging suspicion Hong Kong is about to see a funds outflow of flood proportions soon.  

"Through train" – the plan originally conceived last year to allow mainland investors to dabble in foreign shares – may just be the theme cooked up by traders to have one last party in Hong Kong and make some money before the year draws to a close. 

Woe to those investors who fails to get off the train on time. 

It is telling that while every man and his dog wants a piece of the action on China's "through train", no one has the foggiest idea on the time-table for its arrival - or departure.