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China's rising financial might

Goh Eng Yeow on the spin-offs from Beijing's 4 trillion yuan spending spree.

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Published on November 11th, 2008
 

IT hasn't taken long for the glow of China's ambitious four trillion yuan spending plan to fade.

Only one day after partying like it was early 2007 once more, regional markets have again taken a big pounding as a fresh deluge of woes spewed out of Wall Street.

Singapore ended 4.1 per cent down, while Hong Kong plunged 4.8 per cent and Tokyo lost 3 per cent, as Monday's winnings were more than wiped out by Tuesday's losses.

It makes one wonder if there is anything - literally anything - which any national government can do to reverse the vast tide of destruction now underway in global equities markets.

True, the extent of the problems now engulfing distressed US financial institutions and beleaguered car giants like General Motors and Chryslers is enormous.

But I feel that China's gigantic package of goodies deserves a more fitting reception than the one which it has received from global investors so far.

It is not everyday that a government can proudly step forward and say that it is investing nearly US$600 billion (S$899 billion) in its country's future.

Economists have been falling over themselves, describing this huge stimulus package as China's contribution to forestall a global slowdown caused by the faltering US and European economies.

One British newspaper even urged the Chinese government to scrap the infrastructural spending and distribute the money as a cash rebate to its citizens to directly stimulate the economy.

But I feel that all these views reflect a myopic vision of what China is doing.

US citizens will not reap any direct benefits from the US$700 billion rescue package passed by the US Congress to bail out crippled US financial institutions last month.

In contrast, the benefits from China's near US$600 billion package will be enormous and visible. Fresh railway lines and new roads will be laid and general living conditions will be improved. This will, in turn, facilitate trade and commerce and give a big boost to China's domestic economy.

The only other equivalent is US' ambitious plan in the 1960s to build inter-state highways which catapulted its economy to fresh heights.

For surrounding countries in Southeast Asia, the collateral benefits will be enormous. A rapidly expanding China will need more of everything.

So for those distracted by the renewed free-fall in the stock markets today, take heart.

Some day, the financial crisis that have been ravaging our markets will burn itself out and become ancient history.

But the impact from China's four trillion yuan move to improve its infrastructure and social welfare projects will be long-lasting.

For those with some spare cash, it may be worthwhile nibbling at stocks which may benefit from China's gigantic efforts to improve the living conditions of its citizens - mainland railway construction firms and steel-makers listed in Hong Kong.

The nice thing about this exercise: These stocks have also taken a battering, along with the rest of the market. As such, they have become more affordable as well.

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