RIGHTWINGER Pat Buchanan played the objective analyst on TV the other day. Asked what he thought Senator John McCain should do to close the gap between him and his rival Barack Obama, he said: “Pray.”
I don’t know whose side God is on in this race and if Mr McCain even has time for God right now, considering how he is criss-crossing two time zones to tour seven states in these last 24 hours - Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico and Tennessee - before going home to Arizona.
All the polls show that if voters act the way they spoke to pollsters, victory is Mr Obama’s by a landslide.
Can Mr McCain still pull off a surprise and earn the title the Comeback Kid all over again? If he does, pollsters and the media will go into paroxysms of guilt, anger and recriminations, for certain.
But assuming the pollsters are right, the math seems to be against him. The Democratic candidate is ahead in every state won by Democrats John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000. In short, he appears to have closed the deal in the Democratic strongholds.
He is also ahead in states that Republican president George W. Bush won in 2004 and 2000 - Virginia, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. Mr McCain has to win the traditional Republican states and claw back Mr Obama's advantage in these states, especially those with huge electoral votes like Florida (27) and Ohio (20). Not only that, he needs to snatch from Mr Obama those states where the Democrat already is in the clear lead, like Pennyslvania (21) and Virginia (13). So maybe Mr Buchanan is right. Mr McCain needs a miracle.
Given how sweet these numbers look for Mr Obama, one should be optimistic of his chances. But listening to old-timers - both here at home and friends in the US - who say they have seen race intrude into voters' choices, one can't help but feel a little uneasy these final hours before polling day. Just to drag my mood down further, one could also look at this other figure - the national poll that shows Mr McCain is ahead by 13 points among whites across the nation.
But the rational part of me says, then again, this is not a national election but many, many elections fought in vastly different states. A white American friend also dismisses the race issue. "We are already a postracial society," she says. What does that mean, I ask. "We've gone past race. We don't notice it or even if we do, we don't talk about it, or we appreciate it. It's what you make of your life, not the skin you're born in." She lives in New York.
My colleague in the US too believes race has taken a backseat in this race. Not that it's gone away but just that it's given way to worries over the economy and that's what is giving Mr Obama the righteous wind he spoke about in finishing this election the winner.
What will his victory say about race in America? What of his defeat?
Either way, a lot. If he wins, he makes history. If he loses, he also makes history because the record will show that a black man, no matter how qualified, will have aways to go yet.
So let's not count your chads yet. Look out for these things instead these next 24 hours:
- Voter turnout - If they come in record numbers, Obama’s the man. Democrats are notoriously bad at coming out to vote. This time, it will be different, they claim. We’ll see.
- Man vs machine - If the machines or whatever crude implements used in some places do not break down, he should be home clear. If not, it could get ugly.
- The voting patterns in some key places. I quote veteran pollster John Zogby here who says: “Since McCain must hold all of the states normally won by Republicans ("Red" states) or win Pennsylvania (the only "Blue"/Democratic state he is currently contesting) if Pennsylvania goes to Obama, and if Obama also wins any one of the previously "Red" states of Florida, Virginia or Ohio, the election will be clearly his. Victory, for Obama, in these states would indicate a trend that could also carry over into other red states, namely Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico.”
But after all is said and done, the race thing is still THE story, if you ask me. If Mr Obama pulls off a big victory, he will make minorities in other places think of possibilities rather than parameters, of speaking up rather than staying down, of hope rather than hate.
Mr Obama's rallies over the past months have ended with the Stevie Wonder song "Signed, Sealed, Delivered, I'm Yours" playing each time he ends his speech. The world wants him, if the results of all the international surveys conducted are any indication. Is he yours, America?